World Stocks Up After Greece Asks For Bailout

World stock markets rose Monday as fears of a Greek debt default eased following last week’s request by the country to tap a rescue package from its 15 partners in the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund.

Rate decisions in the US, Japan and New Zealand, and the first GDP release from the US for 2010 are the highlights of this week, which begins slowly and then explodes. Will the dollar index break to a one year high?

Greek hopes turned into worries once again, as more credit downgrades for Greece were released and the talks of a possible default became louder. This story continues to accompany us, as well as the indicators.
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1. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This broad survey of 5,000 households had a big dip in February but recovered quickly in March and reached 52.5 points. It’s now expected to take one step higher and rise to 54.2 points. EUR/USD is quite sensitive to this release.

2. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. In this official public appearance, Bernanke will definitely move the markets. He will testify on the challenge of achieving fiscal sustainability and will comment about the economy.

3. Australian CPI: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia published its consumer prices only once every quarter, making this event an important release – an important indicator towards the next rate decision. After rising by 0.5% in Q4 of 2009, an acceleration is expected this time – 0.9%. A rise above 1% might push the Stevens to another rate hike. He seems reluctant to make another move soon.

4. American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke isn’t expected to make any surprises with the Federal Funds Rate – it’s expected to remain unchanged at a maximum level of 0.25%. Maybe the discount rate will be mentioned. As usual, the FOMC Statement will be closely watched – every change in the wording might have hints, especially the clause about holding interest rates at a low level for an extended period of time.

5. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. New Zealand didn’t follow Australia with a move on the rates, and isn’t expected to move them now as well. The Official Cash Rate is expected to stay at 2.5%. Given the unconvincing rise in prices and weak retail sales, this won’t happen soon. The RBNZ Rate Statement that accompanies the rate decision will have a strong impact on the currency, especially if the economic forecast is updated.

6. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After rising to alarming levels, last week’s numbers were back to normal, at 456K. This time, a drop down to 440K is predicted. A break under 430K is necessary for seeing serious growth in the job market. Note that this is the best indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Up to now, jobless claims indicate that no fireworks will be seen at the next NFP.

7. Japanese rate decision: Published on Friday morning. Japan’s Overnight Call Rate won’t move from 0.1%, not in the near future. The focus will be on the easing steps that the BOJ will make, and on the updated economic forecasts. Japan declared a war on deflation and could take more steps to stimulate the economy and move prices. Note that the Tokyo Core CPI, the best inflation indicator, is published just before the rate decision and will probably show an annual drop of 2% in prices, worse than previous months.

8. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This important Swiss indicator, based on 12 basic ones, is a good reflection of the Swiss economy, and its moves go hand in hand with the Swissy’s strength. After rising to 1.93 points, a rise to 1.99 is predicted this time, the highest since December 2007.

9. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The European unemployment rate and flash CPI are published together. Unemployment is flirting around 10% for a few months. This is a big burden on Europe, and prevents Trichet from moving the rates, despite improvements various surveys.

10. European Flash CPI: On the other hand, inflation is slowly picking up. The CPI Flash Estimate is expected to show an annual rise of 1.4% in prices, exactly like last month and the highest level since the end of 2008. German PPI unexpectedly leaped last week. A rise above 1.5% will be problematic for Trichet – fighting inflation with higher rates will endanger the fragile recovery.

11. Canadian GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.5% in February, slightly lower than the 0.6% in January, but still in the same good rate as in Q4. Another nice month of growth will support the Canadian dollar in its battle on parity, which is still going on. GDP helped the loonie last month, and after the weak CPI and retail sales, it’ll sure need another boost.

12. American Advance GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. After a very strong fourth quarter, that wasn’t accompanied with the same recovery in jobs, economists expect Q1 to show slower growth – an annual rate of 3.4%. Note that these expectations aren’t low, and that exceeding them will be a big boost for the dollar.

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Binary Options Trading Review – March 29 – April 2

The upcoming week contains important events in many countries: Japan’s Tankan index, Canadian and British GDP and employment from Europe and the US – the Non-Farm Payrolls, which are the climax. Will the dollar continue to advance for another week? Here are the biggest market movers expecting us this week.

Non-Farm Payrolls are published on the first Friday of the month, as usual, but this time it’s Good Friday, a holiday in most countries. What will happen in the markets? And who will be there to trade? Apart from the regular events, financial leaders from the Group of 8 (G8) will be meeting in Gatineau, Canada and they might release some market moving statements.

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1. British Final GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the first and second releases, Britain got out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, although it was partly due to a downwards revision of Q3’s number. The second release showed a growth rate of 0.3%, and this will probably be confirmed now. Any revision will rock the Pound.

2. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. 5,000 households are surveyed for this important survey on economic conditions. Last month saw a painful drop from 56.5 to 46 points, the lowest level since April 2009. A recovery to 50.3 is expected this time. Choppy trading will be seen during this time.

3. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s unemployment rate is big burden on policymakers, although it’s currently overshadowed by the debt problems in Greece and Portugal. The dip to 9.9% is a small psychological relief after reaching 10%. A rise back to double digits – 10%, as it was beforehand, will hurt the Euro.
4. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. This important Swiss indicator has been on the rise in recent months, reaching 1.87 points last month, and exceeding expectations. It seems that the Swiss National Bank gave up on interventions and lets EUR/CHF fall, despite their strong words. This indicator will give another push to the Swissy. It’s expected to edge up to 1.91 points.

5. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. This important indicator always shakes the markets, but it is far from predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. In recent months, a positive surprise in this indicator meant a disappointment in the NFP, and vice versa. A loss of 20,000 jobs was reported last time. And now, a rise of 41,000 jobs is predicted.

6. Canadian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP surprised last month with a strong rise of 0.6%, boosting the Canadian dollar. The upcoming release is the first for 2010. We’ll probably see the positive trend continue in January as well with a rise of 0.5% in GDP.

7. Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. This is one of the most important Japanese indicators, released only once per quarter. About 1,200 manufacturers are surveyed by the Bank of Japan. The Tankan Manufacturing Index. The last score was -24, still negative, meaning worsening conditions, but the best since the end of 2008. Another improvement to -14 is predicted this time.

8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. American jobless claims have been improving in recent weeks, dropping from 496K to 442K. This weekly indicator has proved to be a good indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Another drop in claims will raise expectations for the major figure in the next day. They are expected to remain almost unchanged.

9. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector have been optimistic in the past 7 months, with a score above 50. After reaching a peak of 58.4 points, the score fell to 56.5 points last month. A small rise to 57.2 is expected this time.

10. American Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The king of forex is special this time – it’s published on Good Friday – Easter. Banks in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will be closed. No other indicators are released on this day. Liquidity will be extremely low. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics will still publish this important figure. The US lost 36,000 jobs last month, slightly better than the low expectations. A huge gain of 187,000 jobs is expected now. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.7% and is expected to remain unchanged this time as well.

Obama’s Health Care Reform boosting the USD, Euro Falls on Greek Fiscal Worries – Market Weekly Review – March 22-26

Apparently the dollar only took a break just to show fresh strength. The upcoming week. The upcoming week starts with an easy Monday and then becomes busy with many American events. Note a special British event – the annual release of the budget. Let’s review the major market-movers for the upcoming week.

Also in the upcoming week, there’s a smaller-than-usual time difference between North America and Europe. This gives one extra overlapping hour, making day traders more busy and getting European and American events closer to each other – meaning more volatility.

This market review was brought to your by our partner: ForexCrunch.com.

1. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. British inflation is above the governments’ target of 1-3%. This was already seen last month with a rise to 3.5% (annualized). Mervyn King was then forced to write a letter explaining the reasons for the result and the measures that will be taken. He wasn’t too excited, and wants to see a weaker Pound. This time, CPI is expected to rise by 3.1%, getting back in line. Was King right? If so, the Pound will drop.

2. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The vast portion of home sales is of existing homes. This sector has seen a strong rise due to government programs, but then returned to normal. Sales are expected to stay almost unchanged at 5 million. A surprise will move the markets.

3. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. This German survey continued to improve, while other German indicators fell. This is a wide survey of 7000 businesses, making it a closely watched indicator for EUR/USD. A small rise from 95.2 to 95.8 is predicted. This might hurt the Euro, that already began the awaited plunge.

4. British Annual Budget Release: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, knows how to pound the pound again and again. Less than two months before the general elections, the deficit isn’t expected to be reduced. Whatever the outcome, the Pound will rock.

5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Last month, this indicator was quite confusing – durable goods orders rose by 2.6% while the core figure fell by 1%. These figures were revised to the downside. This time, both numbers are expected to rise by less than 1%.

6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Although new home sales are only a small part of home sales, this figure also tends to move currencies. Also here, when the government retreated, home sales plunged. A small rise from 309K to 316K is predicted.

7. New Zealand GDP: Published on Wednesday at 21:45 GMT. New Zealand takes its time with publishing the Gross Domestic Product. A growth rate of 0.8% is expected in Q4 of 2009. This is higher than Q3’s 0.2%. Also Australia saw similar growth rates in Q3 and Q4 – this figure will also move the Aussie.

8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. A steady drop in jobless has been seen since they touched 496K about a month ago. Another small drop is predicted this time, from 457K to 453K. After the last negative NFP figure, will we see a gain in jobs next time?

9. Ben Bernanke talks: Begins testifying on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The head of the Federal Reserve comes to House Financial Services Committee for the second part of his testimony, that will focus on the exit strategy. This time it’s a questions and answers session. The questions and the reactions are unknown, so this may easily lead to remarks that can move the markets, even if Bernanke doesn’t bring any real news.

10. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s deflation is a big burden on the economy, for many years. Tokyo’s figure is released before the national number and has a strong impact on the Yen. An annual drop of 1.7% is expected to follow last month’s 1.8%.

11. American Final GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The second release of American GDP for Q4 of 2009 was better than the first release – 5.9% (annualized). This erased the doubts that were about growth, that isn’t accompanied with a growth in jobs. The final release is expected to confirm this strong growth rate.

U.K. Economy Shrinks Less Than Previously Estimated

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter as a jump in construction and fixed investment brought the longest recession on record closer to ending.

Gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent from the second quarter, compared with a previous measurement of a 0.3 percent drop, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists was for a 0.1 percent contraction. The recession has now shaved 6 percent off GDP, the statistics office said.

The Confederation of British Industry yesterday raised its 2010 economic growth forecast and said the Bank of England may pause its bond-purchase plan in February. Policy makers have pledged to print 200 billion pounds of new money to stoke spending and shake off Britain’s longest recession on record.

“We’ll have growth returning in the fourth quarter, absolutely,” said George Buckley, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “The bank will start taking back its policy accommodation next year. There won’t be any more bond purchases, and the first rate increase will be in August.”

The pound was little changed at $1.6046 as of 9:53 a.m. in London. The yield on the two-year government bond was up 1 basis point today at 1.185 percent.

Recession Damage

The economy contracted 5.1 percent from a year earlier, more than the 4.9 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists.

The U.S. economy probably grew an annualized 2.8 percent in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 62 economists. The Commerce Department will publish that data at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

Construction jumped 1.9 percent, compared with a previous estimate of a 1.1 percent drop, the statistics office said. That offset bigger contractions in services and industrial production.

Travis Perkins Plc, the U.K. building-materials supplier that owns the Wickes home-improvement chain, said Dec. 17 it expects earnings for 2009 to be “at the upper end” of analyst estimates as spending on do-it-yourself projects aided sales.

Fixed investment increased 2.2 percent, instead of the 0.3 percent drop previously measured. Government spending rose 0.3 percent and consumer spending increased 0.1 percent, the statistics office said.

Election Looming

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is trying to revive the economy and rebuild support in time for an election which he must call by June. In an Ipsos-Mori poll published in the Observer on Dec. 20, the opposition Conservatives had support of 43 percent of voters, a 17 percentage point lead over Brown’s ruling Labour Party.

The economy may already be expanding again. Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said in an interview last week that economic growth probably resumed in the fourth quarter. Unemployment unexpectedly fell in November for the first time since February 2008.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors today forecast house prices will rise as much as 2 percent in 2010. The CBI yesterday raised its 2010 growth forecast to 1.2 percent from a previous prediction of 0.9 percent. The group said the central bank will start raising the key interest rate from a record low of 0.5 percent in the second quarter.

Barker, speaking on Dec. 15, said that the economic pickup may still lapse in 2010.

‘Bumpy’ Recovery

“I’ve always been one of the people who thought that the path of this recovery was likely to be quite bumpy and uneven,” she said. “I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that we’d see another quarter of negative growth.”

The household savings ratio, which measures the proportion of income hoarded by consumers, rose to 8.6 percent in the third quarter, the most since the first quarter of 1998, the statistics office said.

The current account gap widened to 4.7 billion pounds in the third quarter, or 1.3 percent of GDP, from 4.4 billion pounds in the previous three months, the statistics office said in a separate report today.

Binary Options Game Plan-USD/CHF Breakout 09/12/09

As you can see in the graph below, the USD/CHF u broke out to a new month high.
It seems like a great scenario for buying USD/CHF binary option call or entering a long spot position.

Binary Options Game Plan for USD/CAD 12/08/09

We have a nice bullish momentum of the USD/CAD with a run from 1.0493 to 1.06670 in just 11 hours of trading. After the ascending triangle breakout at the 1.06460 level was followed by an immediate retreat,
it might indicate a false breakout, and a sharp comeback to the 1.06177 level, Buy a USD/CAD Binary PUT Option in a case of a penetration of the 1.06460.

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Binary Options Game Plan for the USD/CHF 08/12/09

We are witnessing a short-term strength in the USD/CHF trading activity, With a recent breakout of the 1.02260.
In such a case we recommend going long with predetermined risk/reward ratio using USD/CHF Binary Call Option

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