Binary Options Market Outlook – August 23 – 27
Will the US market continue to see red? Corporate activity looks to pick up the slack in growth.
Let’s see how the US markets react to continued uncertainty and last week’s bearish sentiment. U.S. stocks declined Friday on light summer trading volumes, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its second consecutive week of losses as concerns about economic growth weighed on investor sentiment. Offsetting concerns about the sagging recovery in the job market is a resurgence in M&A activity – as corporations in a stronger position to make strategic acquisitions are starting to move again.
Major economic reports to keep an eye on include Tuesday’s Canada core retail sales report (m/m), Wednesday’s Germany Ifo Business Climate and US new home sales, Thursday’s UK Nationwide Building Society’s home sale prices and US unemployment claims, toppping off with Friday’s UK revised GDP and comments by US Fed Reserve Ben Bernanke.
Lets look at how this will affect the major markets:
Stocks:
Leading the Dow’s decline Friday, Hewlett-Packard Co. dropped 2.2%. The technology giant’s profit climbed 6.1% on higher world-wide sales in its fiscal third-quarter, its final quarter with Mark Hurd at its helm. But investors have been nervous about H-P since Hurd left the company two weeks ago. Looks like things might be brighter on the other side of the pond — European stocks were trading up in early action on Monday, led by the financial and mining sectors, with SABMiller and HSBC Holdings in focus following deal talk. Keep an eye on European heavyweights with exposure to Asian markets. Overnight, Asian shares traded mostly higher while Australian stocks were steady.
Currencies:
The Australian dollar gained back most of its losses against its U.S. counterpart Monday, after falling in the wake of Saturday’s indecisive weekend election. The Aussie was buying 89.10 U.S cents, down 0.2%, after Saturday’s general election led to what will likely be the first hung parliament there in 70 years.
The Euro has dropped about 40 pips lower following weaker than expected German advanced Manufacturing PMI figures breaking through Asian sessions trading range floor, at 1.2680, to reach a fresh session low at 1.2680.
Commodities:
Despite opening the week under $74.00 a barrel, the front-month crude contract has recovered slightly over Asia on a weakening US dollar. So far the contract for October delivery trades at $74.19, yet remains fragile near 6-week lows due to last week’s disappointing US data releases.
The biggest factor weighing heavily on crude oil as of recent has been the sluggish economic recovery in key economies with typically high energy demand. In the US, the world’s leading energy consumer, job growth is much slower than analysts’ were predicting with initial jobless claims jumping to a 9-month high in 500,000 this past Thursday. Larger than expected crude inventories is also a contributing factor as stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week.
Binary Options Gameplan – 15-07-10: GBPUSD looking Bullish
The GBPUSD is looking very bullish, as seen in the daily chart below. After finding support on the 21 day moving average (red line), the GBPUSD then entered a bullish swing, indicated below the chart by the stochastic analysis. Now the GBPUSD is setting up a Bull Flag pattern (yellow box), which can lead to higher prices and great CALL Binary Options trading opportunities.
Binary Options Gameplan – 14-07-10. Gold in the spotlight
Gold is settings up particularly interesting Binary Options trading opportunities. As seen in the daily chart of Gold futures below, Gold’s price is consolidating just below the 50 day moving average. As long is the resistance created by the 50 day moving average continues to create this price range, Binary Options trading strategies that take advantage of this resistance can very rewarding.
Binary Options Market Outlook – July 12 – 16
Spotlight:
Google earnings forecast:
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Conference Call – 4:30PM EDT
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Release – 4:00PM EDT
Google is set to release its Q2 earnings report later this week. In the meantime investors have been buying Google stock in anticipation that Google may again have positive earnings and reflecting that the stock may be oversold. Earlier Google passed through its 20 day moving average and resistance is expected ahead of its 50 day moving average.
U.S. Stocks: Earnings Season Begins July 9, 2010
Alcoa starts week that includes reports from Intel, Google, AMD, GE, Citi, Bank of America and Chase. The S&P500 index has been on the rise in anticipation of earnings season as investors are optimistic about the Q2 numbers.
Currencies: U.S. dollar will be tested by economic release data
American Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This all-important consumer related figure was very disappointing last month – sales dropped by 1.2% and core retails sales by 1.1%. This hurt the dollar last month. A recovery now will support it.
American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After a positive surprise last week, with a drop back to 454K. All in all, this tight range isn’t too good. Only a drop under 430K will give hope of a serious improvement in the job market. A rise above 480K will be worrying.
American CPI: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. A rise in consumer prices is the key for a rate hike, but this isn’t due soon. CPI dropped by 0.2% last month and is expected to tick up this time. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by only 0.1% last month, and no big change is due this time.
Gold to hold $1,200 oz
Gold futures are widely expected to hold the $1,200 oz resistance. All this depends largely on earnings season in the U.S., as investors decide whether or not to move into riskier investments or to jump to safe havens.
Oil prices to consolidate with lower prices possible
Oil futures may follow the dollar index and U.S. earnings reports. Whether U.S. stocks continue higher as expected will affect the U.S. dollar as investors seek riskier assets.
Binary Options Gameplan – 08-07-10
This is a great opportunity to take advantage of a significant technical pattern on the daily chart of the S&P500 index. The index is recovering from the oversold area (below 20) of the slow stochastic analysis, technically signifying the entry into a swing trade. A swing trade is a trade into a trend that may last anywhere from 3 to 5 or more days. Recognizing this trend can provide great opportunities for buying Binary Call Options. These opportunities may occur throughout the next few days as long as the trend persists.
Binary Options Gameplan – 07-07-10
The most interesting instrument in the spotlight is definitely the EUR/USD, which is dragging all other instruments with it, like Gold and U.S. stocks.
Looking at a technical analysis of the EUR/USD, a very impressive Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern followed by a Bull Flag consolidation is highlighted in the daily chart below. This will lead to higher prices in the short term. But before the prices move higher, the Slow Stochastic analysis (below the chart) which is currently OverBought (above 80) must move back below 80 out of Overbought territory.
Break out of the Head and Shoulders upwards can be a trigger for buying a Binary Call Options. Failure of this currency to rise with the Stochastic overbought level can be the trigger for a trend reversal downwards and buying Binary Put Options.
Click on the Chart to enlarge:
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Binary Options Daily Review July 5, 2010
U.S. stocks down 4.5% on week
Blue chips fell for seventh day and U.S. stocks were lower Friday as the U.S. jobless rate fell, but nonfarm payrolls declined for the first time this year and U.S. factory orders had their biggest drop in 14 months.
Apple expected to take a hit
Apple issued a statement Friday explaining some of the widely reported signal-reception issues with the iPhone 4, blaming the problem on the way the device indicates the strength of wireless coverage.
Australian stocks end the week on an up note
The Australian government announced sweeping changes to its planned new mining tax Friday, making major concessions to the mining industry and clearing the way for an early election, hot on the heels of the sudden installation of a new prime minister. American depositary shares of BHP Billiton jumped 1.5%, while Rio Tinto advanced 1.5% and Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold climbed 2.2%.
Gold end bearish week
Gold rose on Friday, but posted worst week in six with 4% fall.
Oil week was the worst since May
Last week’s 8.5% decline by the front-month contract was the worst since early May. However, many analysts said technical charts show Nymex crude is likely to consolidate with a downward bias to at least a three-week low of $71.62 a barrel.
All Eyes on the Euro: May 24-28 Weekly Outlook
The Greek crisis was not only far from over, but it turned into a global issue. The latest news is the German’s parliament’s approval of the latest bailout package. Fresh news from Europe will continue shaking the markets, as well as the indicators.
GDP releases from the US and Britain, housing figures from the US are among the major market movers expected this week. Will the markets stabilize? Or will the crazy trading continue? Here’s the weekly outlook.
1. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector is an important element in the economy. Existing home sales are the vast majority of sales, so this figure always has a strong impact on forex trading. Last month saw 5.35 million sales, significantly better than expected. Another improvement is predicted this time – 5.61 million. Note that this release comes on an empty calendar.
2. British GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the initial release, Britain’s economy grew by only 0.2% in Q1. This figure was a blow to the Pound. In this revised version (not final yet), an improvement to 0.3% is expected. This will rock the Pound.
3. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board showed a great result last month – 57.9, the highest in 18 months. Another improvement is predicted in this major indicator – a survey of 5,000 people.
4. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve flies to Japan amidst the big crisis in Europe. In a speech about central banks, Bernanke will be asked questions by the audience and might rock the markets.
5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure was confusing last month: orders saw a drop of 0.6%, while the core figure was totally different – a rise of 3.5%. These numbers will shake the markets again. A rise of 1.4% is predicted in orders, and 0.5% in core orders.
6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release of existing home sales, this figure will probably continue the positive trend from last month, when new home sales leaped from 324K to 411K, rocking the markets. A rise to 420K is expected now.
7. American GDP: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This is the second release of GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Also here, more good news is expected – the annual growth rate is expected to be revised from 3.2% to 3.5%, getting closer to the outstanding growth rate in Q4.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This important weekly release disappointed last time with a jump to 471K. Jobless claims are expected to return to 446K this time. A similar leap in April was followed by a return to the 440Ks. Note that the this number failed to drop below 430K – which seems a very strong barrier. This must be broken for the unemployment rate to drop as well.
9. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s biggest problem is the drop in prices – deflation. This indicator from the capital is the earliest and most important of all inflation numbers. After showing an annual drop of 2% in prices for quite some time, this figure is expected to show a smaller drop – 1.5%, the lowest in 11 months. This could boost the yen, that already enjoys risk aversive trading.
10. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. The former “safe currency” enjoys a strong economy. This major composite index edged up in the past months, and is now predicted to rise from 1.99 to 2.04, showing the stability and strength of the economy. Will it help the currency?
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 21, 2010
U.S. stocks drop
U.S. stocks tumbled into their first correction of the long bull market Thursday, as investors unloaded stakes in companies with heavy international exposure on worries that Europe’s debt crisis would stall the global recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 376.36 points, or 3.6%. The S&P 500 Index closed down 43.46 points, or 3.9%.
Google, Intel, Apple in the news
Google Inc. gave up more than $19 a share, or 4%, to fall to $475.01. The company used its developers conference as a platform to unveil its new Google TV initiative with partners such as Intel Corp. Google product manager Rishi Chandra said, “It turns out on the Internet people use Flash,” and added that “part of being open means you’re inclusive,” a jab at Apple’s blocking applications which use Flash on its new iPad tablet and the iPhone.
Oil follows stocks down
Crude-oil futures ended lower on Thursday, mirroring steep losses for U.S. stocks and other commodities as investors wrung their hands about energy demand and feared Europe could derail the global economic recovery.
Gold ends lower
Gold futures declined Thursday as ongoing worries about the global economy sent U.S. stocks and other asset classes reeling, and institutional investors shied away from buying more bullion. Investors such as hedge funds have been unloading their long positions, or bets that prices will go higher.
Euro continues its pullback higher
The euro bounced back against major rivals in early Asian trading Friday, getting a lift against its Japanese counterpart after Japan’s finance minister warned about excessive yen strength. This is day 3 of the expected Euro pullback, as investors wait for the next wave of dollar strength.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 19, 2010
Euro at a four year low!
The euro touched a new four-year low against the U.S. dollar in early Asian trading Wednesday, after new reports Tuesday that Germany will ban certain types of short-selling heightened market worries about Europe.
Oil headed south…
Not surprisingly, and as we predicted over the last few days, as the U.S. dollar strengthened, crude-oil futures fell below $68 a barrel in electronic trading Wednesday afternoon in Asia, extending their losses after closing at a seven-month low. Crude Oil Binary Options are also available for trading at StartOptions.com
Gold cooling off after a big run
Gold futures ended lower Tuesday as physical demand was seen as slack and investors pared their positions following bullion’s recent rise. “The uptrend is still intact,” said market analysts, adding that gold’s floor is likely to hover around the $1,214-an-ounce mark.
U.S. Stocks drop on tuesday
U.S. stocks landed with a thud on Tuesday, giving up earlier attempts at gains, as the euro’s slide soured sentiment among investors viewing the currency as a proxy for Europe’s sovereign-debt troubles.
U.S. Stocks headed for a weak start
U.S. stock futures drop Wednesday, the first day of the hastily-drawn-up German short-sale ban, which served to reinforce rather than dispel worries over the health of European governments and the lenders that possess their debt.
