Binary Options Daily Review July 15, 2010
SPOTLIGHT:
GBPUSD at 2-month high
The British pound hit a two-month high versus the dollar following data showing the U.K. labor market improving further.
U.S. stocks flat over super Intel earnings overshadowed by chilly Fed forecast
A strong earnings report from Intel boosted U.S. blue-chip stocks Wednesday, extending the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s winning streak to seven sessions. Still, the Dow’s gain was slim and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index snapped a six-day streak as optimism over the pace of corporate earnings gave way to a chilly economic forecast from the Federal Reserve.
U.S. dollar down after chilly Fed Forecast
The dollar declined against major currencies on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting indicated officials agreed to consider further policy measures to stimulate growth if needed.
Gold ends lower
Gold futures ended lower Wednesday, after swerving in and out negative territory for most of the session, with investors taking cues from currencies.
Oil settled lower following the Fed release
Crude-oil futures settled lower Wednesday in a last-minute reversal prompted by the release of Federal Reserve minutes in which policy makers trimmed growth prospects for this year and 2011.
Binary Options Daily Review July 14, 2010
SPOTLIGHT:
Oil rallies nearly 3%
Crude-oil futures rallied nearly 3% Tuesday to close at their highest level in two weeks, after financial results from Alcoa Inc. boosted the stock market and the International Energy Agency projected a rise in demand next year.
U.S. stocks shoot higher
U.S. stocks shot higher Tuesday, extending the recent winning streak to six sessions as better-than-expected earnings from Alcoa and CSX boosted expectations for upcoming reports from bellwethers like Caterpillar.
U.S. dollar rises on earnings season optimism
The dollar rose against the yen in Asia Wednesday on speculation that good earnings reports from U.S. firms suggest important U.S. data due later in the day may turn out to be better than expected.
Gold pushes past $1,200
Gold futures pushed past the $1,200-an-ounce level Tuesday, scoring their highest close in nearly two weeks, after buyers were back to the market and Portugal’s downgrade rekindled fears of a European debt crisis.
Binary Options Daily Review July 13, 2010
SPOTLIGHT
Gold holding the $1,200 oz resistance
Gold futures ended below $1,200 an ounce on Monday as the dollar rose and investors seemed to be in no hurry to snap up bullion, even at recent bargain prices.
U.S. stocks rise for 5th session
U.S. stocks closed with small gains Monday, following a big rally last week, as several broker upgrades lifted the technology sector as investors awaited results from aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. to kick off the second-quarter earnings season.
Dollar gains as euro falls back below $1.26
The dollar advanced against most major currencies Monday, regaining some ground on the euro as investors look ahead to several sovereign-debt sales in Europe and the results of stress tests on banks in the region.
Oil moves lower as dollar strengthens
Crude-oil futures settled lower Monday as investors waited for more clues from the start of earnings season and no catalyst emerged to take prices higher following last week’s 5.5% gains.
Binary Options Daily Review July 12, 2010
SPOTLIGHT:
Gold rose 1.2% on Friday
Gold rose 1.2% Friday as investors found a renewed appetite for the metal after it traded below $1,200 an ounce for three straight sessions.
U.S. stocks climbed on Friday
U.S. stocks climbed Friday, capping their best week in nearly 12 months, as optimism ahead of the second-quarter earnings season powered a strong rebound from the market’s worst levels this year.
Apple seen higher
Only three of the 41 brokers that Thomson Reuters lists as following Apple have their price targets below Apple’s current stock price. The analysts that have higher views on Apple’s stock peg their targets between 10% and more than 52% above where the shares currently trade. The consensus is that Apple’s stock still has much higher to rise.
Yen slips on monday
The yen sank against its major counterparts in Asian trading Monday, helped by gains in most of the region’s major stock indexes, and following a poor showing by Japan’s ruling party in upper-house elections Sunday.
Oil tops $76
Crude-oil futures rose Friday, tracking narrow gains in U.S. stocks and buoyed by growth in wholesales inventories that met expectations.
Weekly Outlook July 12 – 16
American retail sales, consumer sentiment and inflation numbers will dominate this week’s trading. There are important releases from other parts of the world. Here is an outlook for the major market moving events.
EUR/USD extended its gains in the past week, edging up to new levels. But is this sustainable? The pair cannot rally solely on weak US data. We have a major German survey this week. Let’s start:
- British Final GDP: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT, delayed from two weeks ago. Britain came out of recession only in Q4 of 2009, and continued growing slowly in Q1. The initial release of a weak 0.1% growth rate in Q1 was later revised to a 0.3% rise, and it’s expected to be confirmed at this rate in the final release.
- British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Inflation is becoming an issue in Britain. Prime Minister David Cameron and one MPC member, Andrew Sentance, want to take care of it. While the annual price rise fell from the 3.7% peak to 3.4%, this is still above the government’s target. A new rise will put pressure for a hike and boost the Pound.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This all-important survey well reflected the recent crisis in Europe as it collapsed from 48.7 to 28.7 points last month, hurting the Euro, not for the first time. This highly regarded indicator is now expected to recover.
- American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. This simultaneous release always rocks USD/CAD and emphasizes Canada’s better situation. A trade surplus in Canada and a trade deficit in the US will probably be seen once again.
- British employment data: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. Britain enjoyed four months of big drops in the number of unemployed people, all exceeding early expectations. The drop of over 30K in the Claimant Count Change (an early figure) will probably be seen once again. The unemployment rate fell from 8% down to 7.9%. This is a late figure.
- American Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This all-important consumer related figure was very disappointing last month – sales dropped by 1.2% and core retails sales by 1.1%. This hurt the dollar last month. A recovery now will support it.
- American FOMC Meeting Minutes: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. In the last rate decision, held on June 23rd, the Federal Reserve not only left the rates and the interest rate forecast unchanged, but also lowered the economic outlook, hurting the dollar. We’ll now get to know exactly why these forecasts were lowered. This will rock the markets.
- Japanese rate decision: Published on Thursday morning. The Japanese yen stopped rallying after the recent political crisis broke out. The wording at the BOJ press conference will be closely watched and will rock the markets. Regarding the interest rate, no change is expected this time – it will be left at 0.1% as deflation is still strong.
- American PPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. American producer prices fell in the past two months, erasing a sharp gain three months ago and reassuring that there are no inflationary pressures. A small rise this time will show again that a rate hike is very far, weakening the dollar.
- American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After a positive surprise last week, with a drop back to 454K. All in all, this tight range isn’t too good. Only a drop under 430K will give hope of a serious improvement in the job market. A rise above 480K will be worrying.
- American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This important indicator ended many months of steady rises with a crash from 21.4 to 8 points, hurting the dollar. This survey of about 250 manufacturers will probably edge up this time, but won’t approach the previous levels.
- American Federal Reserve nomination vote: Begins on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. An appointment of 3 FOMC members doesn’t happen everyday. The US Senate will vote on Sarah Bloom Raskin Peter Diamond and Janet Yellen, in a vote that will shape future decisions for quite a while. If they aren’t approved, or if many questions are raised, the dollar could be hurt.
- American CPI: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. A rise in consumer prices is the key for a rate hike, but this isn’t due soon. CPI dropped by 0.2% last month and is expected to tick up this time. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by only 0.1% last month, and no big change is due this time.
- American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Friday at 13:00 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of foreign money into the US, and serves as a vote of confidence (or fear of trouble in other countries). Two months ago saw a huge surprise, as this indicator passed 140 billion. Although calming down last month to 83 billion, the number is still high. Another drop is expected this time.
- American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 13:55 GMT. The preliminary release of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan provides a dramatic close for the week. Sentiment cautiously edged up in the past three months and reached 76 points. From these heights, it will probably drop.
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Binary Options Daily Review July 8, 2010
Spotlight:
U.S. stocks rally, pushing Dow tops 10,000
U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday as optimism grew for the approaching corporate-earnings season, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average through the 10000 mark for the first time since June 28.
AUDUSD higher, USD lower
The Australian dollar spiked higher against its U.S counterpart Thursday, after Australian employment data surprised on the upside.
Gold moves up from lows
Gold futures edged up Wednesday as investors took an opportunity to buy bullion after prices recently had fallen to their lowest point since late May.
Oil rebounds from 4 week low, rises 2.9%
Oil futures rose for the first time in seven sessions Wednesday as the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised up its global oil demand forecast and investors enjoyed a break from disappointing economic data.
Binary Options Daily Review July 7, 2010
SPOTLIGHT:
Gold at 7 week lows on Euro strength
Gold futures settled 1% lower Tuesday as the euro strengthened and stocks rose, with the metal falling below $1,200 an ounce for the first time since late May and touching its lowest price in seven weeks.
U.S. stocks stop losing streak
The main U.S. stock benchmarks survived an afternoon challenge Tuesday, managing to hold on to gains and break multisession losing streaks after an earlier rally lost steam in the face of consumer discretionary losses and concerns over global growth.
BP extends gains
BP’s shares extended gains Tuesday, reflecting hopes that the oil giant’s battered shares may discount the costs of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and attract new holders.
U.S. Dollar trading near 2 month lows against the Euro
The dollar pared losses after trading near a two-month low against the euro on Tuesday after U.S. stocks turned lower in afternoon trading, giving up notable gains notched earlier in the session.
Oil closes below $72
Crude-oil futures ended Tuesday with a modest loss, unable to regain ground after a mid-session reversal that coincided with U.S. stocks paring gains.
Binary Options Daily Review July 6, 2010
U.S. stocks poised for gains at the open
U.S. stock futures were pointing higher Tuesday as traders return from a long holiday weekend, with hawkish comments from the Australian central bank supporting markets as well as a rally in Chinese and European stocks.
U.S. Dollar down, Australian Dollar up
USD weaker as stocks gain after ISM report. Australian dollar up 2% after central bank leaves policy rate unchanged.
Gold continues downward trend
Gold extends losses as euro strengthens. Prices drop below key $1,200 mark for the first time in seven weeks.
Oil gains after 6 days down
Crude-oil futures on Tuesday rose for the first time in six days, as the weakening U.S. dollar and rising global equities boosted sentiment in the energy markets.
Weekly Outlook July 5 – 9
After the Non-Farm Payrolls, the upcoming week features many rate decisions and employment data from Australia and Canada. Here’s an outlook for the major events that will move the markets this week.
The debt issues in Europe, and the growing fear of a double dip recession, continue accompanying us all the time. The situation in the US isn’t much better… Let’s start:
- American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. This figure is usually released before the Non-Farm Payrolls, and it will be interesting to see the impact of this timing, also during the Independence Day Weekend. The indicator has been positive, showing economic expansion (above 50) for some time. In the past 3 months, the score repeated itself – 55.4 points. A similar number is expected this time as well.
- Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After six rate hikes, Glenn Stevens paused last time. The rate hikes already took their toll on the housing market, yet employment continues to be good. The RBA will probably leave the rates unchanged once again at 4.5%, so the focus will be on the rate statement – hints for future moves.
- Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Last month’s Australian employment numbers were great, with a nice gain in jobs and a big drop in the unemployment rate to 5.2%. Both figures are expected to remain almost unchanged this time, but the Aussie (and also the kiwi) will shake on any outcome.
- British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. After we’ve seen one member, Andrew Sentance, vote for a rate hike after seeing inflation rising, there’s a greater chance of it happening now. The Official Bank Rate stands on 0.5% for a long time. The rate statement, and especially any mention of inflation will be closely watched and will rock the Pound.
- European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. JEan-Claude Trichet’s ECB isn’t expected to move the European Minimum Bid Rate. The dire situation in Europe is likely to result in leaving the rate at 1%. His words about the economic situation in the ECB Press Conference, 45 minutes later, will shake the Euro.
- American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly release is always of high significance, even if the changes are quite minor in recent weeks. A drop under 430K will be a positive sign, while a rise over 480K will be alarming.
- Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Canada’s employment change number exceeded expectations in the past two months, rising above 100K two months ago and nearly 25K last month. The unemployment rate, which has stabilized at 8.1% in the past two months, isn’t expected to move this time.
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Binary Options Daily Review – July 1, 2010
U.S. stocks in worst quarter since 2008
U.S. stocks slumped on Wednesday, leading the market to its worst quarter since December 2008, as economic concerns continued to pile on.
Australian mining stocks, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton Ltd., recover from steep losses
Australia’s mining stocks and its currency retrace some of their steep losses after a report that the government is on the brink of a compromise with leading miners over a controversial tax proposal.
Dollar lower on Wednesday
The dollar came under pressure on Wednesday, as U.S. stocks posted gains and the euro rose as weaker-than-expected demand for three-month loans from the European Central Bank tempered worries about the health of the euro-zone’s banking sector.
Gold edges higher
Gold futures edged higher on Wednesday. Gold has had an impressive run in 2010, starting to vie for record-breaking levels in May. It set records on May 12, June 8 and $1,258.30 an ounce on June 18.
Oil in worst quarter since 2008
Crude-oil futures settled lower Wednesday after a U.S. Department of Energy report was seen as bearish. It was a lackluster end for a quarter that saw oil’s worst losses since the last quarter of 2008.
