Binary Options Market Outlook – August 30 – September 3
This week’s major economic reports include consumer-spending on Monday, ISM data on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey of manufacturers is expected to fall slightly to 53.5% from 55.5%.
Affecting the Australian (AUD) dollar on Monday are Building approvals (month over month) and retail sales (month over month) to be issued 9:30pm US EST.
On Tuesday the Canadian (CAD) month over month GDP figures will be released before the market opens.
Wednesday will see the British pound (GBP) affected by the UK manufacturing report and homes report issued by Halifax Bank of Scotland.
Thursday keep an eye out for the ECB press conference, surely to affect the EUR/USD pair.
The major news for the week will naturally be focused on Friday’s Non-farm Payroll Report (NFP), which has produced disappointing results over the last two months. Investors will continue to focus on meager job growth in the US, with a jobless rate ticking up to to 9.6% from 9.5%, following the layoff of temporary Census Workers. That number would also look far worse if it included the people who are too discouraged to look for work.
Job concerns to weigh on the markets
Lets look at how this will affect the major markets:
Stocks:
Last week stocks shot higher as investors searching for confidence were reassured by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s vow to do whatever it takes to revive the shaky economy. Let’s see if that momentum continues this week.
Following his speech The Dow Jones Industrial Average vaulted 125 points, or 1.3%, to 10111 during early afternoon trading.
Currencies:
Japan’s yen erased its early losses against major rivals Monday, after an emergency easing by the Bank of Japan failed to stem the currency’s strength for long.
The dollar slipped to ¥84.94 from ¥85.39 yen in late North American trading on Friday, after rising as high as ¥85.88 after the special meeting was announced. The yen hit a 15-year high versus the dollar last week.
The euro also slipped against the yen, buying ¥108.06, down from ¥108.75 late Friday and from a Monday high of ¥109.55.
Commodities:
Crude futures were little changed in Asia Monday, supported by a weak dollar, but lacking any upward momentum from supply-demand fundamentals.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $75.11 a barrel at 0655 GMT, down 6 cents in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 10 cents to $76.55 a barrel.
Oil has bounced back from a trough of $70.76/barrel reached Aug. 25 as investors renew their appetite for risk and sell the greenback. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was down 0.02 at 82.74.
Binary Options Daily Review August 27, 2010
Stocks:
U.S. stocks fell Thursday as a fall in new claims for unemployment benefits offered only slight consolation to a market hammered by a recent spate of largely dismal economic reports. The question on everyone’s mind now is whether US Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke will call for further stimulus dollars to keep the recovery going on a sustainable path. He will be speaking to the US congress on the matter today, which the markets will be following closely.
In trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 74.25 points to 9,985.81, with all but two of its 30 components ending in the red.
The S&P 500 declined 8.11 points to 1,047.22, with health-care companies and consumer staples weighing the most among its 10 industry groups. Material and industrial firms fared the best.
Currencies:
The Euro has tested support at 1.2695 session low right at European opening, which held firm and the pair bounced up to reach session high levels at 1.2740, approaching Thursday’s high at 1.2765.
On the upside, above 1.2735 session high, the pair could face resistance at 1.2765 (Aug 26 high) and then 1.2795/00 (Intra-day resistance). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.2695 (session low), with next levels at 1.2650 (Aug 26 low) and 1.2585 (Aug 24 low).
The yen fell against the dollar and euro in Asian trading Friday after reports that Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan plans to hold a press conference later in the day to deal with the yen’s strength sparked selling on hopes that government may undertake some sort of concrete steps.
More Stimulus to Come?
Commodities Outlook:
Crude oil futures were slightly lower Friday in Asia against a backdrop of mixed regional equities, but were finding support ahead of a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in which he may suggest more stimulus measures for the world’s largest economy.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $73.31 a barrel at 0629 GMT, down $0.05 in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.18 to $74.84 a barrel.
Binary Options Daily Review August 26, 2010
Stocks:
U.S. stocks finished higher on Wednesday, after a late reversal helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average end a four-session losing streak, with investors buying up stocks of home builders and other consumer issues following further round of disappointing housing news.
In Asia shares traded mostly higher Thursday, with several indexes moving in and out of negative territory. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average returned from an afternoon lull to trade 0.4% higher, and the Topix up 0.2%, as the yen remained little changed from its morning levels.
Currencies:
The dollar regained its earlier advance versus the Japanese yen but stayed lower against the euro on Wednesday as stocks turned up after being weighed by softer-than-predicted U.S. economic data. Still, investors started looking for real value and the trend is expected to continue in today’s trading.
The strong dollar was supported by U.S. data showed durable-goods orders rose last month but at a pace far less than analysts anticipated.
The euro was also caught between Portugal’s strong bond auction and Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Ireland’s bond rating, while the yen fell back somewhat. The yen tends to be the biggest loser when stocks decline, which currency traders take as an indication that investors are more comfortable taking risks and moving out of the safety of the low yielding yen. The dollar also often loses against the euro when risk appetite increases.
Commodities:
Crude-oil futures ended Wednesday in positive territory, despite a surprise increase in inventories and weak economic data that offered little hope for a real surge in demand.
Crude for October delivery rose 89 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $72.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after setting an 11-week low on Tuesday. Earlier in the session, oil had posted an intraday low of $70.69 a barrel.
Crude prices have fallen nearly $10 a barrel in just over two weeks following weaker equities and a stronger U.S. dollar amid growing doubts about the strength of the global economic recovery. While the bearish undertone prevails, analysts say crude might be set up for a technical bounceback in the near term with strong support around $70 a barrel.
Binary Options Daily Review August 25, 2010
Stocks:
U.K. stocks were broadly flat Wednesday, as losses for Tullow Oil were offset by well-received results from BHP Billiton and insurer Admiral Group.
The U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 index rose 0.1% to 5,158.60, helped by a 1% gain for heavyweight miner BHP Billiton after it said fiscal-year profit more than doubled to $12.72 billion.
A broad decline in U.S. stocks that sent the Dow Industrials briefly below 10,000 ended sharply Tuesday, after poor data on the housing market intensified worries about the global economic recovery.
Currencies:
The Japanese yen eased against its rivals during Asian trading Wednesday after hitting multiyear highs the previous day, with the market watching for possible intervention by Tokyo to curb the currency’s rise.
In East Asian afternoon trading, the U.S. dollar changed hands at ¥84.38, recovering from its 15-year low of ¥83.57 Tuesday.
Commodities:
Crude oil futures rose slightly in Asia trading Wednesday as fresh buying emerged after prices closed at their lowest levels in more than two months.
A weaker U.S. dollar against the euro helped support buying interest, but gains were limited by a fall in regional equities.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $71.87 a barrel at 0653 GMT, up $0.24 in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.36 to $72.74 a barrel.
Crude prices have fallen nearly $10 a barrel in just over two weeks following weaker equities and a stronger U.S. dollar amid growing doubts about the strength of the global economic recovery. While the bearish undertone prevails, analysts say crude might be set up for a technical bounceback in the near term with strong support around $70 a barrel.
Binary Options Daily Review July 28, 2010
SPOTLIGHT
Gold falls to 3 month lows
Gold futures settled at a three-month low Tuesday, routed as they slid below a key support level early in the trading session and a wave of selling ensued.
U.S. stocks down on Tuesday
Strong earnings from DuPont helped drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher Tuesday, but the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell as a drop in consumer confidence weighed on consumer-sensitive stocks including Home Depot and McDonald’s.
Euro down vs. Yen
The euro edged lower against the yen as overnight gains to a more than two-month high encouraged Japanese exporters to sell in order to lock in profits. Further declines in the risk-sensitive euro are likely to be short-lived, as rising Asian shares are supporting sentiment toward the currency.
Dollar moves higher
The U.S. dollar advanced on Tuesday, gaining 1% against the Japanese yen and pushing the euro back under $1.30, after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence fell more than many anticipated, pressuring equities lower and reducing investors’ appetite for risky assets.
Oil falls 2%
Oil prices fell nearly 2% Tuesday as stocks wavered between gains and losses and selling momentum took over after the day’s two major pieces of macroeconomic news disappointed investors.
Binary Options Market Outlook – July 26 – 30
SPOTLIGHT: Gold broke our pivot
Metals: As we identified in our last post, Gold broke through our pivotline and headed lower
In our last post, we highlighted the bearish pivot on the Gold daily chart.
If you were paying attention, you could have made some great trades as Gold headed lower as expected past the trendline.
Now Gold can be expected to head to new lows and establish a new price range.
Stocks: U.S. stocks to react this week to earnings; European stocks to bank stress tests
This week will be filled with earnings and economic reports include gauges of U.S. consumer sentiment and weekly jobless-claims numbers.
For European stocks, the start of the week brings the first chance to react to the results of bank stress tests, released Friday after markets there closed.
Currencies: The British Pound/U.S. dollar currency pair is creating a very Bullish setup to continue its upward trend
With many investors believing that the worst is over for the British economy, we have seen the GBPUSD gather strength over the last few weeks to $1.54+ from its low at $1.423, just 2 months ago.
Now the British Pound/U.S. dollar currency pair looks ready to pounce to new highs, which should happen soon whenever the 1.54500 resistance is broken.
Commodities: Crude Oil looking ready to move past $80
With the Euro gathering strength versus the dollar, we are seeing crude oil prices getting ready to push past the all important $80 mark, which should lead to much higher prices.
Binary Options Gameplan – 23-07-10: Gold Bearish…
The daily chart of Gold, below, shows that Gold is forming a rising pivot chart pattern. This pivot, when taken in the context of the descending trend, is bearish. When Gold breaks the resistance line below, this would lead to lower prices and great Binary Option Put trading opportunities.
Binary Options Daily Review July 23, 2010
SPOTLIGHT:
U.S. stocks rally on earnings
U.S. stocks notched their best session in more than two weeks Thursday after a broad group of companies topped earnings estimates and raised their forecasts, and after investors got a breath of optimism from U.S. and European economic data.
U.S. dollar fell on Thursday
The U.S. dollar fell Thursday, losing ground against the euro and other major currencies as U.S. corporate and housing reports supported equities and reduced demand for the perceived safety of the greenback.
Gold made a comeback on Thursday
Gold staged a comeback Thursday, posting gains after bottom fishers came in to snap up the metal at bargain prices and as other commodities rallied on enthusiasm about U.S. corporate earnings.
Oil rallies to 3-week high
Crude climbs nearly 4% to top $79 a barrel as global demand view turns more bullish.
Binary Options Daily Review July 22, 2010
SPOTLIGHT
Microsoft earnings report out today
Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trading in Thursday’s session is Microsoft Corp. Microsoft is expected to report earnings of 46 cents per share and revenue of $15.2 billion for the fourth quarter of 2010.
Yahoo! tumbles after disappointing earnings
Shares of Yahoo Inc. tumbled Wednesday, one day after the company reported a sharp rise in second-quarter profit, but also delivered sales figures that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Shares of Yahoo! were down nearly 8% to $14 in afternoon trading.
U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Wednesday
U.S. stocks dropped sharply Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called the economic outlook “unusually uncertain” but avoided naming any new steps to jump-start growth, and after mixed earnings results from Yahoo Inc., Coca-Cola Co. and others.
Copper rallies 3%
Gold futures settled virtually unchanged Wednesday amid light volume. Copper, however, rose 3%, the red metal’s biggest one-day increase since mid-June.
Oil falls after surprise increase in inventories
Oil futures dropped below $77 a barrel on Wednesday after a strong opening on an unexpected increase in oil inventories and an uncertain economic outlook.
Binary Options Market Outlook – July 19 – 23
SPOTLIGHT:
Apple will report results for its fiscal third quarter on Tuesday.
Apple will report results for its fiscal third quarter on Tuesday. The period closed June 27, three days after the iPhone 4 went on sale. It will also be the first reporting period to include sales of the iPad tablet device that was launched in early April. Apple shares have lost more than 4% so far this week, as negative press around the iPhone 4 has built up. On Monday, Consumer Reports said it could not recommend buying the device until Apple addressed the antenna problem.
U.S. stocks to begin volatile week on Monday
Friday’s sharp slide followed a late-session bounce back the day before as investors cheered the government settling its fraud suit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The U.S. stock market is likely to begin the new week with some volatility, with investors eying disappointing economic reports and a mixed burst of quarterly earnings reports.
Euro may test $1.30 and higher next week
The Euro and other USD currency pairs will be affected by economic data next week. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This release checks the pulse of the US economy every week and serves as an indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls and American housing figures: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. The housing sector is critical for the US economy.
Gold may test $1185 and lower next week
Gold hasn’t been able to gather much strength from safe-haven buying Friday, as the downward pressure from other markets was just too great. The settlement below $1,190 brought gold to the bottom of its recent trading range. Gold has traded sideways for the past two weeks.
