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Week Ahead: Earnings Will Call the Tune for Stocks
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Stocks Shed Losses as Bank Stocks Gain
Stocks turned slightly positive as investors warmed to bank stocks, a day before the White House will announce its plans to charge the industry fees related to the industry’s bailout and as Congress probes the financial system’s collapse.
Major indexes faced pressure most of the morning after energy prices fell on an inventory surge and concerns persisted over global growth. But the mood turned a bit positive as Wells Fargo , Bank of America and others headed higher. BofA earlier was the biggest drag on the Dow.
Energy shares also fell after a report showed a larger than expected surge in inventories.
Oil prices dropped again, falling below $80 a barrel for the first time in 10 days even as the dollar continued to fade.
Chevron was the biggest loser on the Dow 30, which lost an early pop as the market sought to rebound from a losing day Tuesday.
Resource companies also fell, with Southern Copper dropping more than 2.5 percent.
Kraft Foods stoked some investor enthusiasm as it raised its outlook for the second time in two months. Investors even scooped up shares of Alcoa , which led the market lower yesterday after issuing disappointing earnings.
The market fell Tuesday on concerns over earnings and whether monetary tightening in China would stall the global economic recovery.
The China worries seemed to abate somewhat but remained a lingering concern.
« We don’t expect the effects of the current tinkering to be overly disruptive or derail the recovery trend, » Tinconderoga Securities analyst John Stoltzfus wrote in a morning research note that acknowledged a « steep selloff » remains possible. « Likely a look in the rearview mirror sometime down the road will tell us that China’s actions … were sensible and ultimately prudent. »
Technology continued to be a sore spot for the market, though, with chipmakers particularly weak and the Nasdaq lagging its counterparts. shares dropped for the second consecutive day as investors begin to take profits from an aggressive two-month rally in the group.
Google shares fell on news that it may pull out of China because of cyber attacks. Chinese search engine Baidu surged.
AstraZeneca was among the market’s big movers, rising after Credit Suisse upgraded the pharma leader to « neutral » from « underperform. »
Another snapshot of the economy comes at 2 pm New York time, when the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, the region by region assessment of economic conditions.
At the same time, the Treasury is out with the December budget statement, expected to show a deficit of $91 billion for the month, compared with a shortfall of $51.8 billion in December of 2008.
Sony gained as it postpones the launch of videogame Gran Turismo 5, citing production issues for the latest in that hot-selling videogame line.
Stocks Rise, Bonds Drop on Economic Recovery; Carbon Declines
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied and bonds fell, sending the difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury note yields to a record, on signs the economic rebound is gaining steam. Oil rose after attacks on facilities in Nigeria and Iraq.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1.2 percent to 1,115.44 at 11:20 a.m. in New York. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 1.4 percent. The Treasury yield curve touched 281 basis points on speculation the economic rebound will fuel inflation, while the cost to protect U.S. corporate bonds from default fell to the lowest since May 2008. Carbon-permit prices tumbled as leaders agreed not to set binding emissions targets at the Copenhagen climate summit.
Optimism about the global economic recovery was bolstered as analysts advised buying shares of Alcoa Inc. and Intel Corp. on signs that demand for aluminum and computer chips is improving. The Confederation of British Industry raised its forecast for next year’s U.K. growth to 1.2 percent from 0.9 percent. U.S. consumers probably earned and spent more in November, economists said before reports later this week.
“The economy is improving and shoppers are out there, which signals confidence in that improvement,” said Stefanie Yeager, a fund manager at State College, Pennsylvania-based Vantage Investment Advisors LLC, which oversees $450 million. “People are really seeing that things are turning around. Christmas isn’t turning out to be the black mark that people thought it might be earlier in the year.”
Chipmakers Lead Gains
All 24 industries in the S&P 500 advanced, with Intel leading computer-chip stocks up 2.6 percent for the top gain. Retailers climbed 1.5 percent as a group after the National Retail Federation said last-minute shopping in the days leading up to Christmas may make up for lost weekend sales on the U.S. East Coast after record snowfalls shut stores early and kept shoppers at home.
Health insurers, led by Cigna Corp. and Aetna Inc., rose two days after the Senate announced a compromise health-care bill that dropped proposals for a government-run plan to compete with the private sector and delayed taxes on the insurance industry. Cigna and Aetna climbed at least 6 percent, while the 13-member Standard & Poor’s insurance index was up 4.4 percent.
“The bill seems fairly benign for the industry,” said Les Funtleyder, a Miller Tabak & Co. analyst in New York, in a note to clients. “A mid-2010 start date seems like it will give the companies enough time to deal with the new rules.”
Default Swaps Drop
Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index, used to speculate on the creditworthiness of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada or to protect against losses on their debt, declined 1.5 basis points to 87 basis points, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. The index fell to its lowest since May 2, 2008, according to CMA DataVision.
The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks advanced 1 percent. Safran SA climbed 3.8 percent in Paris after winning a $5 billion contract to supply engines for China’s first narrowbody aircraft. Natixis SA added 3.6 percent after the French bank said it will be profitable in the fourth quarter.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3 percent, as Hong Kong- listed property developers and insurers declined on concern China will do more to curb real-estate speculation. Soho China Ltd., the biggest developer in Beijing’s central business district, dropped 4.5 percent and Poly (Hong Kong) Investment Ltd. lost 6.1 percent.
Carbon Permits Tumble
European Union carbon permits fell the most since February on the European Climate Exchange. Carbon-dioxide allowances for delivery in December 2010 fell as much as 8.7 percent to 12.40 euros a metric ton.
The U.S., China, India and other nations attending the two- week Copenhagen summit that ended at the weekend agreed to voluntary, rather than binding, targets to reduce emissions. The accord isn’t enough to boost demand for permits, said Trevor Sikorski, an emissions analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
The dollar traded near a three-month high against major counterparts. The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against currencies including the euro, yen, pound and franc, has increased 3.8 percent this month to 77.687, within 1 percent of its three-month high of 78.141 reached on Dec. 18.
The dollar traded at $1.4318 per euro, compared with $1.4338 on Dec. 18, when it appreciated to $1.4262, the strongest level since Sept. 4. The yen depreciated 0.4 percent to 130.20 per euro, from 129.75.
Oil Rallies
Crude oil rallied as much as 1.3 percent to $74.32 a barrel in New York. Nigeria’s main militant group claimed its first assault on oil infrastructure in the country in five months, while Iraq shut its northern export pipeline to Turkey after an explosion damaged the link. OPEC, meeting in Angola tomorrow, said it expects to hold production targets.
Nickel rallied 4.8 percent to $17,925 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange as Russia’s government decided to reimpose a 5 percent tax on nickel exports that was suspended in January. Russia is home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest producer of the stainless-steel ingredient.
Copper for three- month delivery added 1.7 percent to $6,960 a ton, the first gain in three days.
The yield on the German 10-year bund, Europe’s benchmark government security, climbed five basis points to 3.18 percent. Greece’s bonds fell for a third day, pushing the 10-year yield 16 basis points higher to 5.94 percent to its highest level since March.
