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Weekly Outlook June 14 – 18
The upcoming week consists of inflation figures from all over the world, a major German survey, rate decisions from Japan and Switzerland among other events. Did the dollar take a pause, or will its new weakness continue?
We see a growing gap between the commodity currencies and the rest of the world. Australia enjoys a great job market, the rate has been lifted in New Zealand, and Canada is doing well on all parameters. This week will be mostly about the US. Let’s start:
1. Japanese rate decision: On Tuesday morning. The BOJ isn’t expected to change the rock-bottom Overnight Call Rate of 0.1%, but the rate statement, and especially the press conference afterwards, will probably trigger interesting statements about the state of the economy. Officials in the new Japanese government warned that Japan could face a “Greek-style” debt crisis. Are they trying to aggressively weaken the Yen?
2. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. The new British Prime Minister, David Cameron, said that inflation must be tackled. The current level of 3.7% is above the government’s target of 1-3%, and this isn’t expected to changed. CPI is expected to tick down to 3.5%. Mervyn King, the BOE’s governor, dismissed inflation until now. Raising the rates while the economy is struggling isn’t tempting. King and other senior members will speak in front of the Treasury Committee about inflation.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This survey of 350 analysts and investors is highly regarded and has a strong impact on the Euro. The forecast is for a slight recovery, from 45.8 to 48.7, after the initial wave of the contagious European debt problems. Note that there’s also an all-European figure, but the German one tends to have more impact.
4. American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of money into our out of the US, being a sign of confidence. The turmoil in Europe, as last month saw a huge leap - 140 billion instead of 50 that was predicted. The safe haven status that the US has will probably be reflected in this figure once again.
5. British employment data: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The number of unemployed people, as seen in the Claimant Count Change, dropped significantly in the past three months, exceeding expectations time after time. While this is good for the Pound, the complementary figure, unemployment rate, which is a lagging figure, rose to 8% and isn’t expected to move from there.
6. European inflation data: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Also in Europe, prices are rising, but the inflation rate isn’t a headache for the ECB, not yet. CPI is expected to show an annual rise of 1.6% and Core CPI a rise of only 0.8%. Any surprise will shake the Euro.
7. American housing figures: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Building permits disappointed last month as they weakened to 610K. A rise to 630K is expected now. A rise above 700K will convince the markets that the recovery is strong. Housing starts reached a higher level, 670K, but they’re expected to drop this time to 650K. Together with the PPI, this time is very volatile for the dollar.
8. American PPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Producer prices fell last month by 0.1%, and this fall is expected to accelerate this month to 0.5% – this is mainly the result of the drop in oil prices. Core PPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, is also expected to be tame – 0.1%. No inflation pressures from here.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 7:15 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes a decision on the Libor Rate only once a quarter. No change is expected this time, so the focus will be on the accompanying release of the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. Will the central bank express concerns about the currency? After the fall of the Japanese government, the Swissy got some renewed attention as a safe haven currency. The low levels of EUR/CHF could trigger an intervention, and this might happen together with the rate decision, as seen in the past.
10. American CPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The main inflation figure isn’t expected to be different than producer prices. CPI is expected to drop by 0.2% and Core CPI will probably rise by 0.1% – Bernanke will probably leave the wording about “interest rates being low for an extended period of time” once again, weakening the dollar.
11. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Last week saw another disappointment, as jobless claims are refusing to go down. This week isn’t expected to be different – the forecast is for a minor drop from 456K to 454K.
12. American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This major gauge has risen steadily in recent months, reaching 21.4 points. This trend will probably stop. The global turmoil will probably take its toll on this indicator.
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 25, 2010
Forex update: Euro in free-fall
The euro kept falling against the dollar and yen as concerns grow that the euro-zone’s sovereign debt turmoil has started to undermine the health of the region’s financial system.
British shares fall through key level
The FTSE 100 falls below the 5,000 level for the first time since late last year on Tuesday, pulled down by heavy losses for banks and miners.
European stocks suffer steep losses
European shares fell sharply on Tuesday, with banks and miners taking the brunt of the selling as investors fretted over tensions in Korea as well as problems with debt burdens and bank balance sheets closer to home.
U.S. pointing to a very weak start after steep losses on Monday
U.S. stock futures pointed to a turbulent start Tuesday amid tensions in North Korea and euro-zone debt and bank concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 199 to 9,844.00. A late sell-off sent stocks to a steep loss Monday that erased all the previous session’s gains, underscoring that investors’ fears about Europe’s credit crisis and tighter rules on Wall Street are still running strong.
‘Bull case’ for Apple
Apple’s shares get a lift after a Morgan Stanley analyst says the tech blue-chip could be worth $400 a share.
Oil edges up despite strong dollar
Crude inched up Monday, hanging on to higher prices even as futures battled a stronger dollar and a down day for U.S. stocks.
No surprise, Gold higher
Gold and other metals futures bounced back on Monday, with investors more eager to buy bullion as prices had come off from their record mid-May highs.
All Eyes on the Euro: May 24-28 Weekly Outlook
The Greek crisis was not only far from over, but it turned into a global issue. The latest news is the German’s parliament’s approval of the latest bailout package. Fresh news from Europe will continue shaking the markets, as well as the indicators.
GDP releases from the US and Britain, housing figures from the US are among the major market movers expected this week. Will the markets stabilize? Or will the crazy trading continue? Here’s the weekly outlook.
1. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector is an important element in the economy. Existing home sales are the vast majority of sales, so this figure always has a strong impact on forex trading. Last month saw 5.35 million sales, significantly better than expected. Another improvement is predicted this time – 5.61 million. Note that this release comes on an empty calendar.
2. British GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the initial release, Britain’s economy grew by only 0.2% in Q1. This figure was a blow to the Pound. In this revised version (not final yet), an improvement to 0.3% is expected. This will rock the Pound.
3. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board showed a great result last month – 57.9, the highest in 18 months. Another improvement is predicted in this major indicator – a survey of 5,000 people.
4. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve flies to Japan amidst the big crisis in Europe. In a speech about central banks, Bernanke will be asked questions by the audience and might rock the markets.
5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure was confusing last month: orders saw a drop of 0.6%, while the core figure was totally different – a rise of 3.5%. These numbers will shake the markets again. A rise of 1.4% is predicted in orders, and 0.5% in core orders.
6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release of existing home sales, this figure will probably continue the positive trend from last month, when new home sales leaped from 324K to 411K, rocking the markets. A rise to 420K is expected now.
7. American GDP: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This is the second release of GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Also here, more good news is expected – the annual growth rate is expected to be revised from 3.2% to 3.5%, getting closer to the outstanding growth rate in Q4.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This important weekly release disappointed last time with a jump to 471K. Jobless claims are expected to return to 446K this time. A similar leap in April was followed by a return to the 440Ks. Note that the this number failed to drop below 430K – which seems a very strong barrier. This must be broken for the unemployment rate to drop as well.
9. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s biggest problem is the drop in prices – deflation. This indicator from the capital is the earliest and most important of all inflation numbers. After showing an annual drop of 2% in prices for quite some time, this figure is expected to show a smaller drop – 1.5%, the lowest in 11 months. This could boost the yen, that already enjoys risk aversive trading.
10. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. The former “safe currency” enjoys a strong economy. This major composite index edged up in the past months, and is now predicted to rise from 1.99 to 2.04, showing the stability and strength of the economy. Will it help the currency?
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US dollar and Gold are the biggest winners as everyone runs for safety: May 17 – 21 Weekly Outlook
Stocks, U.S. Futures, Euro Tumble on Bailout Plans: Pound Drops, Oil Falls: Figures from all over the world are expected this week, with Japanese GDP, European surveys and major US inflation figures standing out. As the focus remains on the Euro – threatening the “Lehman level”, we can be sure to get an exciting week trading binary options online. Let’s see what’s awaiting us this week.
One aspect of recent week’s trading is the dollar’s safe haven status. The yen also enjoys this status, but it wasn’t always this way. Here’s a side story of how the yen took this role from the Swissy. OK, let’s begin reviewing the events:
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1. TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Monday at 13:00 GMT. This figure represents the flow of cash to the US, and expresses confidence in the economy. After rising to 120 billion and dropping to 20, 47.1 billion dollars flowed last month, exceeding expectations. It’s expected to be higher this time – 50.5billion.
2. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Inflation picked up in Britain, and passed the government’s target of 1-3%. Mervyn King dismissed this rise and blamed it mostly on oil prices. Indeed, prices didn’t get out of control and they now stand at an annual rate of 3.4%. A rise towards 4% will stir the expectations for a rate hike, but expectations are talking about 3.5%.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This major survey finally recovered last month – after 6 months of drops that hurt the Euro. The rise to 53 points helped stabilize the Euro. Given the deteriorating debt troubles across the continent, this survey of 350 investors will probably drop this time.
4. American housing figures: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. American building permits surprised with a rise to 690K last month, exceeding expectations after a few stable months. Also housing starts surprised, and both figures pushed the greenback together. If both figures go in the same direction again, this will boost the dollar.
5. American PPI: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Here we got confusing figures last time – producer prices rose by 0.7%, almost double the expectations, yet Core PPI rose by only 0.1%, signalling that prices remain very very stable.
6. American CPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Consumer prices are more important for policymakers. Here, both figures are almost deflationary. CPI rose by 0.1% last month, while Core CPI remained unchanged. A rise of at least 0.5% in Core CPI is needed for talks about a rate hike to stir.
7. American FOMC Meeting Minutes: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The last meeting of the FOMC saw no major changes. The pledge to keep the Federal Funds Rate at low levels for an extended period of time remained intact. In this release, we might learn about the members’ different opinions. This will probably cause choppy trading, but no long term effects.
8. Japanese GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. This is the first release for Japan’s Q1 GDP. The land of the rising sun saw 3 quarters of growth. Last quarter’s 1.1% growth was well received, yet deflation still weighs on the currency. A smaller growth rate is expected this time.
9. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. As always, this weekly release causes the markets to shake, as it gives a fresh view of one of the most important indicators for the economy. A small drop from 44K to 439K will probably be printed now.
10. American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This important indicator is a good representation of the recovery in the US – it has risen in the past three months, exceeding expectations each time. From 20.2 points printed last month, its predicted to edge up a little bit higher.
11. Japanese rate decision: Published on Friday. Japan’s Overnight Call Rate isn’t expected to move from 0.1%. The BOJ Press Conference that accompanies the release is of high importance – the words heard there always move the markets just before the London session begins.
12. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. This major European survey climbed steadily in the past year. Also last month, a positive surprise was recorded when score passed the 100 point mark. It will probably remain unchanged now.
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Binary Options Daily – May 10, 2010
Stock Binary Options News
European shares surged on Monday behind outsize gains for financials, after European finance ministers and central bankers agreed a program designed to stop a crisis that started in Greece spreading through the rest of the region. The gains (FTSE and CAC40 indexes as much as 6%, Barclays jumped 11.2%), came after European finance ministers and central bankers agreed late Sunday on a new loan program that could top 750 billion euros ($970.6 billion), designed to keep the Greek debt crisis from spreading to other vulnerable European countries. The European Central Bank confirmed late Sunday that it will buy bonds in the secondary market to ensure liquidity for “dysfunctional” market segments.
The European Union’s massive funding to help defend vulnerable nations in the euro zone served to boost risk appetite that lifted most Asian stocks and currencies Monday. But while analysts described the move as just what the doctor prescribed to repair investor sentiment, some said worries about the ability of member European countries to slash their yawning fiscal deficits still remain.
Currency Binary Options News
The EURUSD surged against its major counterparts in early Asian trading Monday, after European finance ministers agreed late Sunday the rescue package aimed at containing damage from Greece’s debt woes. The EURJPY was up 2.7%. The EURUSD was trading as high as $1.30500, up from $1.2714 in late North American trading on Friday morning.
Commodities Binary Options News
Gold futures fell as far as $14 an ounce Monday in electronic trading on Globex afternoon in Asia, poised to give back Friday’s gain as news of a plan to prevent the spread of the Greek debt crisis dulled gold’s investment appeal. By the early Asian afternoon, Gold for June delivery was down $13, or 1.1%, to $1,197.40 an ounce on Globex, after touching an intraday low of $1,196.10 in electronic trading. rude-oil futures climbed more than 2% in electronic trading on Globex Monday afternoon in Asia, rebounding on the heels of a European plan to prevent the Greek debt crisis from spreading.
Crude Oil for June delivery, the most active contract, climbed $1.75, or 2.3%, to $76.86 a barrel on Globex after tapping an intraday high of $76.91 in electronic trading.
Binary Options Daily – May 3, 2010
Currency news today is full of huge headlines, as Greece reached an agreement under which it would accept a bailout package of direct loans from euro-zone countries and the International Monetary Fund, media reports on Sunday said. The reports put the potential value of that package at 100 billion to 120 billion euros ($132.5 billion to $159 billion) over three years. As a result, the European Central Bank announced on Monday it would suspend the minimum credit-rating threshold for all Greek government debt, a day after Athens agreed to stringent austerity measures in return for a 110-billion-euro bailout package from its euro-zone partners and the International Monetary Fund. “This positive assessment and the strong commitment of the Greek government to fully implement the program are the basis, also from a risk-management perspective, for the suspension announced herewith,” the ECB said. European stocks opened mostly lower on Monday, indicating sentiment that inflation may be the long-term implication of this agreement. Expect the USD pairs, especially the EURUSD to react to these news. Trade the news at StartOptions.com using Binary Options on the EUR/USD.
In market news today, expect airline stocks, like JetBlue, to move, on news that Boards of Continental and United Airlines parent UAL reportedly approve their long-awaited, $3.2 billion all-stock deal to create world’s largest air carrier. However, overall sentiment is that due to May’s tendencies, Goldman, European debt issues will make it tough to sustain momentum. After climbing in April, the U.S. stock market starts May on less-certain footing, given the new month’s spotty record and stocks’ retreat over the past week. As a result, stocks may take a hit over the next few days, a great time to short the market using Binary Option Puts.
World Stocks Up After Greece Asks For Bailout
World stock markets rose Monday as fears of a Greek debt default eased following last week’s request by the country to tap a rescue package from its 15 partners in the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund.
Rate decisions in the US, Japan and New Zealand, and the first GDP release from the US for 2010 are the highlights of this week, which begins slowly and then explodes. Will the dollar index break to a one year high?
Greek hopes turned into worries once again, as more credit downgrades for Greece were released and the talks of a possible default became louder. This story continues to accompany us, as well as the indicators.
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1. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This broad survey of 5,000 households had a big dip in February but recovered quickly in March and reached 52.5 points. It’s now expected to take one step higher and rise to 54.2 points. EUR/USD is quite sensitive to this release.
2. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. In this official public appearance, Bernanke will definitely move the markets. He will testify on the challenge of achieving fiscal sustainability and will comment about the economy.
3. Australian CPI: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia published its consumer prices only once every quarter, making this event an important release – an important indicator towards the next rate decision. After rising by 0.5% in Q4 of 2009, an acceleration is expected this time – 0.9%. A rise above 1% might push the Stevens to another rate hike. He seems reluctant to make another move soon.
4. American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke isn’t expected to make any surprises with the Federal Funds Rate – it’s expected to remain unchanged at a maximum level of 0.25%. Maybe the discount rate will be mentioned. As usual, the FOMC Statement will be closely watched – every change in the wording might have hints, especially the clause about holding interest rates at a low level for an extended period of time.
5. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. New Zealand didn’t follow Australia with a move on the rates, and isn’t expected to move them now as well. The Official Cash Rate is expected to stay at 2.5%. Given the unconvincing rise in prices and weak retail sales, this won’t happen soon. The RBNZ Rate Statement that accompanies the rate decision will have a strong impact on the currency, especially if the economic forecast is updated.
6. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After rising to alarming levels, last week’s numbers were back to normal, at 456K. This time, a drop down to 440K is predicted. A break under 430K is necessary for seeing serious growth in the job market. Note that this is the best indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Up to now, jobless claims indicate that no fireworks will be seen at the next NFP.
7. Japanese rate decision: Published on Friday morning. Japan’s Overnight Call Rate won’t move from 0.1%, not in the near future. The focus will be on the easing steps that the BOJ will make, and on the updated economic forecasts. Japan declared a war on deflation and could take more steps to stimulate the economy and move prices. Note that the Tokyo Core CPI, the best inflation indicator, is published just before the rate decision and will probably show an annual drop of 2% in prices, worse than previous months.
8. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This important Swiss indicator, based on 12 basic ones, is a good reflection of the Swiss economy, and its moves go hand in hand with the Swissy’s strength. After rising to 1.93 points, a rise to 1.99 is predicted this time, the highest since December 2007.
9. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The European unemployment rate and flash CPI are published together. Unemployment is flirting around 10% for a few months. This is a big burden on Europe, and prevents Trichet from moving the rates, despite improvements various surveys.
10. European Flash CPI: On the other hand, inflation is slowly picking up. The CPI Flash Estimate is expected to show an annual rise of 1.4% in prices, exactly like last month and the highest level since the end of 2008. German PPI unexpectedly leaped last week. A rise above 1.5% will be problematic for Trichet – fighting inflation with higher rates will endanger the fragile recovery.
11. Canadian GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.5% in February, slightly lower than the 0.6% in January, but still in the same good rate as in Q4. Another nice month of growth will support the Canadian dollar in its battle on parity, which is still going on. GDP helped the loonie last month, and after the weak CPI and retail sales, it’ll sure need another boost.
12. American Advance GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. After a very strong fourth quarter, that wasn’t accompanied with the same recovery in jobs, economists expect Q1 to show slower growth – an annual rate of 3.4%. Note that these expectations aren’t low, and that exceeding them will be a big boost for the dollar.
