Silver Near Record Highs – Hot Picks Dec 30
 Market Update: Futures in gold, copper and other metals rose on Wednesday, extending major gains notched in the previous session and sending silver near a record high. Investors are looking to futures in the metals as protection against economic and debt worries in the coming year. |
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Index Hot Pick of the Day |
 The Paris CAC40 index broke down from its upward trend and gapped down hard. Yesterday the index closed the gap in a strong up day. Now the index might head back down to support on the yellow 50-day-SMA support line. The MACD is crossing down which is a very bearish indicator. This is beginning to look like a head-and-shoulders chart pattern which is vey bearish. |
Binary Options Gameplan – 14-07-10. Gold in the spotlight
Gold is settings up particularly interesting Binary Options trading opportunities. As seen in the daily chart of Gold futures below, Gold’s price is consolidating just below the 50 day moving average. As long is the resistance created by the 50 day moving average continues to create this price range, Binary Options trading strategies that take advantage of this resistance can very rewarding.
Binary Options Market Outlook – July 12 – 16
Spotlight:
Google earnings forecast:
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Conference Call – 4:30PM EDT
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Release – 4:00PM EDT
Google is set to release its Q2 earnings report later this week. In the meantime investors have been buying Google stock in anticipation that Google may again have positive earnings and reflecting that the stock may be oversold. Earlier Google passed through its 20 day moving average and resistance is expected ahead of its 50 day moving average.
U.S. Stocks: Earnings Season Begins July 9, 2010
Alcoa starts week that includes reports from Intel, Google, AMD, GE, Citi, Bank of America and Chase. The S&P500 index has been on the rise in anticipation of earnings season as investors are optimistic about the Q2 numbers.
Currencies: U.S. dollar will be tested by economic release data
American Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This all-important consumer related figure was very disappointing last month – sales dropped by 1.2% and core retails sales by 1.1%. This hurt the dollar last month. A recovery now will support it.
American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After a positive surprise last week, with a drop back to 454K. All in all, this tight range isn’t too good. Only a drop under 430K will give hope of a serious improvement in the job market. A rise above 480K will be worrying.
American CPI: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. A rise in consumer prices is the key for a rate hike, but this isn’t due soon. CPI dropped by 0.2% last month and is expected to tick up this time. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by only 0.1% last month, and no big change is due this time.
Gold to hold $1,200 oz
Gold futures are widely expected to hold the $1,200 oz resistance. All this depends largely on earnings season in the U.S., as investors decide whether or not to move into riskier investments or to jump to safe havens.
Oil prices to consolidate with lower prices possible
Oil futures may follow the dollar index and U.S. earnings reports. Whether U.S. stocks continue higher as expected will affect the U.S. dollar as investors seek riskier assets.
Weekly Outlook June 21 – 25
The upcoming week is quite busy: a rate decision in the US, housing figures and the presentation of an emergency budget in the UK among other events. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events this week.
The market disregards the European troubles. In the past week, the focus was on the Spanish credit crunch. Nevertheless, the Euro continued recovering, and so did other currencies, that truly enjoy good economies, such the loonie, which is ready for parity. American figures will dominate the scene this week. Let’s start:
- German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 8:00 GMT. This important indicator has been more optimistic than other German surveys in the past months, but it also stopped rising last month. It’s now expected to edge down from 101.5 to 101.2 points, as uncertainty grows in Europe.
- British Emergency Budget: Published on Tuesday at 11:30 GMT. Squeezing the budget deficit is a top priority for the new government. George Osborne, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, will go to parliament and present the cuts. The budget release includes updated economic forecasts, which will rock the Pound.
- American Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Small surprises have been seen in this important housing sector indicator. This time, a big leap is expected – from 5.77 to 6.23 million, the highest in 6 months. High volatility is expected around the release.
- American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Complementing Tuesday’s release, this indicator is expected to be different this time, and drop from 504K to 435K. Note that the impact will be rather muted due to the upcoming to rate decision. Nervous trading is predicted.
- American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve isn’t expected to move. Not so soon. Employment is still problematic in the US, and inflation doesn’t pose a threat. Yet again, the focus won’t be on the Federal Funds Rate, but on the accompanying FOMC Statement. The wording about leaving the interest rate low for an “extended period of time”, will probably remain despite some members’ will to drop it. Watch out for a few hours of action.
- New Zealand GDP: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand is rather late with its GDP release for Q1. After a rise of 0.8% in Q4 of 2010, the growth rate is expected to be weaker – 0.5%. This goes hand in hand with Australia’s weaker growth rate. The Aussie will also move after this release.
- American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. As in every week, this release is closely watched. Another disappointment was seen in the past week, with jobless claims rising to 472K. A small drop to 461K will probably be seen now. Only a drop under 430K will convince everybody that a real recovery arrived.
- American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This release will probably be very confusing. Durable Goods Orders jumped by 2.8% last time, and are expected to correct with a drop of 1% this time. Core Durable Goods Orders fell by 1.1% last time and are expected to rise in the same scale this time. Only a move of both figures in the same direction will move the markets.
- Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The Japanese government’s efforts to tackle the deflation will probably be partially fruitful. The annualized level of prices is expected to show a drop of 1.5%, better than last month’s 1.6% number. This is the earliest inflation figure in Japan, and tends to have a strong impact.
- American GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This is the third and final release of American GDP for the third quarter. The second release was worse than the first one, and showed an annual growth rate of only 3% in Q1, much weaker than the previous quarter’s leap. This growth rate will probably be confirmed now.
That’s it for the major events for this week. Stay tuned for specific currency updates.
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Weekly Outlook June 14 – 18
The upcoming week consists of inflation figures from all over the world, a major German survey, rate decisions from Japan and Switzerland among other events. Did the dollar take a pause, or will its new weakness continue?
We see a growing gap between the commodity currencies and the rest of the world. Australia enjoys a great job market, the rate has been lifted in New Zealand, and Canada is doing well on all parameters. This week will be mostly about the US. Let’s start:
1. Japanese rate decision: On Tuesday morning. The BOJ isn’t expected to change the rock-bottom Overnight Call Rate of 0.1%, but the rate statement, and especially the press conference afterwards, will probably trigger interesting statements about the state of the economy. Officials in the new Japanese government warned that Japan could face a “Greek-style” debt crisis. Are they trying to aggressively weaken the Yen?
2. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. The new British Prime Minister, David Cameron, said that inflation must be tackled. The current level of 3.7% is above the government’s target of 1-3%, and this isn’t expected to changed. CPI is expected to tick down to 3.5%. Mervyn King, the BOE’s governor, dismissed inflation until now. Raising the rates while the economy is struggling isn’t tempting. King and other senior members will speak in front of the Treasury Committee about inflation.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This survey of 350 analysts and investors is highly regarded and has a strong impact on the Euro. The forecast is for a slight recovery, from 45.8 to 48.7, after the initial wave of the contagious European debt problems. Note that there’s also an all-European figure, but the German one tends to have more impact.
4. American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of money into our out of the US, being a sign of confidence. The turmoil in Europe, as last month saw a huge leap - 140 billion instead of 50 that was predicted. The safe haven status that the US has will probably be reflected in this figure once again.
5. British employment data: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The number of unemployed people, as seen in the Claimant Count Change, dropped significantly in the past three months, exceeding expectations time after time. While this is good for the Pound, the complementary figure, unemployment rate, which is a lagging figure, rose to 8% and isn’t expected to move from there.
6. European inflation data: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Also in Europe, prices are rising, but the inflation rate isn’t a headache for the ECB, not yet. CPI is expected to show an annual rise of 1.6% and Core CPI a rise of only 0.8%. Any surprise will shake the Euro.
7. American housing figures: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Building permits disappointed last month as they weakened to 610K. A rise to 630K is expected now. A rise above 700K will convince the markets that the recovery is strong. Housing starts reached a higher level, 670K, but they’re expected to drop this time to 650K. Together with the PPI, this time is very volatile for the dollar.
8. American PPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Producer prices fell last month by 0.1%, and this fall is expected to accelerate this month to 0.5% – this is mainly the result of the drop in oil prices. Core PPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, is also expected to be tame – 0.1%. No inflation pressures from here.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 7:15 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes a decision on the Libor Rate only once a quarter. No change is expected this time, so the focus will be on the accompanying release of the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. Will the central bank express concerns about the currency? After the fall of the Japanese government, the Swissy got some renewed attention as a safe haven currency. The low levels of EUR/CHF could trigger an intervention, and this might happen together with the rate decision, as seen in the past.
10. American CPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The main inflation figure isn’t expected to be different than producer prices. CPI is expected to drop by 0.2% and Core CPI will probably rise by 0.1% – Bernanke will probably leave the wording about “interest rates being low for an extended period of time” once again, weakening the dollar.
11. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Last week saw another disappointment, as jobless claims are refusing to go down. This week isn’t expected to be different – the forecast is for a minor drop from 456K to 454K.
12. American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This major gauge has risen steadily in recent months, reaching 21.4 points. This trend will probably stop. The global turmoil will probably take its toll on this indicator.
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 24, 2010
Euro, Dollar Up vs Yen
The dollar and the euro ticked up against the yen in Asia Monday as short-term players in the region reacted to gains in Chinese share markets by selling the safe-haven yen in favor of the two riskier currencies.
Oil looking for a stronger start early this week
Crude futures rose in Asia Monday. Also on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in July traded at $70.71 a barrel.
Gold still weaker
Gold futures ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, as investors dumped the metal, in order to raise cash for stock bargain hunting. “We maintain a positive view on gold given longer-term investor interest remains strong. However, in the near term profit taking and margin requirements given elevated speculative interest could result in a deeper correction,” said market analysts.
U.S. Stocks will look to economic data
U.S. economic data will be flowing thick and fast in the week ahead, with housing reports a particular focus.
European Stocks start the week strongly
European shares climbed on Monday morning, with banks taking back some ground lost last week amid jitters about sovereign finances.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 21, 2010
U.S. stocks drop
U.S. stocks tumbled into their first correction of the long bull market Thursday, as investors unloaded stakes in companies with heavy international exposure on worries that Europe’s debt crisis would stall the global recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 376.36 points, or 3.6%. The S&P 500 Index closed down 43.46 points, or 3.9%.
Google, Intel, Apple in the news
Google Inc. gave up more than $19 a share, or 4%, to fall to $475.01. The company used its developers conference as a platform to unveil its new Google TV initiative with partners such as Intel Corp. Google product manager Rishi Chandra said, “It turns out on the Internet people use Flash,” and added that “part of being open means you’re inclusive,” a jab at Apple’s blocking applications which use Flash on its new iPad tablet and the iPhone.
Oil follows stocks down
Crude-oil futures ended lower on Thursday, mirroring steep losses for U.S. stocks and other commodities as investors wrung their hands about energy demand and feared Europe could derail the global economic recovery.
Gold ends lower
Gold futures declined Thursday as ongoing worries about the global economy sent U.S. stocks and other asset classes reeling, and institutional investors shied away from buying more bullion. Investors such as hedge funds have been unloading their long positions, or bets that prices will go higher.
Euro continues its pullback higher
The euro bounced back against major rivals in early Asian trading Friday, getting a lift against its Japanese counterpart after Japan’s finance minister warned about excessive yen strength. This is day 3 of the expected Euro pullback, as investors wait for the next wave of dollar strength.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 19, 2010
Euro at a four year low!
The euro touched a new four-year low against the U.S. dollar in early Asian trading Wednesday, after new reports Tuesday that Germany will ban certain types of short-selling heightened market worries about Europe.
Oil headed south…
Not surprisingly, and as we predicted over the last few days, as the U.S. dollar strengthened, crude-oil futures fell below $68 a barrel in electronic trading Wednesday afternoon in Asia, extending their losses after closing at a seven-month low. Crude Oil Binary Options are also available for trading at StartOptions.com
Gold cooling off after a big run
Gold futures ended lower Tuesday as physical demand was seen as slack and investors pared their positions following bullion’s recent rise. “The uptrend is still intact,” said market analysts, adding that gold’s floor is likely to hover around the $1,214-an-ounce mark.
U.S. Stocks drop on tuesday
U.S. stocks landed with a thud on Tuesday, giving up earlier attempts at gains, as the euro’s slide soured sentiment among investors viewing the currency as a proxy for Europe’s sovereign-debt troubles.
U.S. Stocks headed for a weak start
U.S. stock futures drop Wednesday, the first day of the hastily-drawn-up German short-sale ban, which served to reinforce rather than dispel worries over the health of European governments and the lenders that possess their debt.
Daily Binary Options Update – May 12, 2010
Gold, Gold, Gold!
This is the time to buy Gold! On Tuesday, the June and May gold futures contracts rallied to finish at record closing levels. Gold futures topped $1,233 an ounce in electronic trading Wednesday morning in Asia, extending the hefty gains seen in New York as European debt concerns continued to draw investors to the precious-metals market. Silver is also making big moves to the upside.
European markets are up!
Earnings-related gains from ING and Deutsche Telekom and the appointment of David Cameron as Britain’s new prime minister, worked to offset more losses from banks in Europe on Wednesday.
The Euro is making a comeback against the Dollar
The euro staged a comeback against the dollar and yen in Asian trading Wednesday, as investors reacted to a report about a probe by U.S. Federal prosecutors into allegations against Morgan Stanley.
U.K. shares, sterling up after Cameron named PM
Expect U.S. stock markets to recover, following recovery in U.K., European markets in the coming days.
U.S. Banking stocks expected to take a hit today
U.S. Federal prosecutors are looking into whether Morgan Stanley misled investors about mortgage-derivatives deals it helped design and sometimes bet against, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
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Binary Options Market Review 06-May-2010
Stock Binary Options
Asian Sell-Off! Almost all of the Asian region’s major indexes fall 1%-3%. Most Asian markets trade sharply lower on increasing concerns over the spreading debt crisis in Europe, with Japanese exporters with high exposure to Europe taking a hit from the euro’s weakness. Forex Binary Options are rebounding this hour and traded around the 1.2796 level.
European shares also lost ground on Thursday as investors continued to fret about debt levels in countries on the edge of the region. The U.K. FTSE 100 index declined 0.6% to 5,309.34 on the day of a general election, while the German DAX index declined 0.4% to 5,935.26 and the French CAC-40 index lost 1% to 3,600.66. The European Central Bank will announce a decision on interest rates later Thursday.
U.S. stocks fell for a second day Wednesday as worries that Europe’s debt trouble is escalating overshadowed economic reports showing growth in the services sector and additional hiring by private firms. After a triple-digit slide and then a brief visit to positive territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 60 points, or 0.6%, to 10,866.83. The latest action is leading U.S. market commentators to suggest that stocks are going much lower, and that the U.S. market’s pullback could be heavier than any since March 2009.
The EUR-USD fell to a fresh 14-month low against the dollar in Asia Thursday as riots in Greece fueled investor concern that the nation can’t implement fiscal reform steps smoothly and may face higher default risk. Three people were killed during demonstrations in Athens Wednesday in protest against the government’s spending-cut and tax-hike plans to avert national bankruptcy. Over the weekend, the government agreed to an EUR110 billion ($141 billion) European Union and IMF debt bailout. The development prompted investors to speculate the nation may not be able to promptly take necessary steps to avoid default, which in turn will increase worries that other debt-suffering European nations such as Portugal may experience similar fates.
Oil Binary Options
Oil prices settled under $80 a barrel on Wednesday, pulled down by a stronger U.S. dollar, concerns about the political unrest in Greece and the state of other European economies, and a higher-than-expected rise in crude inventories. Crude oil for June delivery slumped $2.77, or 3.4%, to $79.97 a barrel on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That is the lowest price for a most-active contract since March 15, according to FactSet Research. Losses were deeper mid-morning and in the last hour of trading. This action is leading market commentators to suggest that people are worried that the bull market is over, that maybe we are seeing the tipping point.
Gold Binary Options
Gold changed direction to settle marginally higher on Wednesday as bullion regained at least some its glow as a hedge against macroeconomic and political unrest. Gold turned as the euro bounced off lows and U.S. stocks paired losses. This has lead market commentators to suggest that the the global political and macroeconomic background is bullish for gold, it shows the viability of gold as an alternative currency. Gold for June delivery added $5.80, or 0.5%, to $1,175 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
