Binary Options Gameplan – 15-07-10: GBPUSD looking Bullish
The GBPUSD is looking very bullish, as seen in the daily chart below. After finding support on the 21 day moving average (red line), the GBPUSD then entered a bullish swing, indicated below the chart by the stochastic analysis. Now the GBPUSD is setting up a Bull Flag pattern (yellow box), which can lead to higher prices and great CALL Binary Options trading opportunities.
Weekly Outlook June 14 – 18
The upcoming week consists of inflation figures from all over the world, a major German survey, rate decisions from Japan and Switzerland among other events. Did the dollar take a pause, or will its new weakness continue?
We see a growing gap between the commodity currencies and the rest of the world. Australia enjoys a great job market, the rate has been lifted in New Zealand, and Canada is doing well on all parameters. This week will be mostly about the US. Let’s start:
1. Japanese rate decision: On Tuesday morning. The BOJ isn’t expected to change the rock-bottom Overnight Call Rate of 0.1%, but the rate statement, and especially the press conference afterwards, will probably trigger interesting statements about the state of the economy. Officials in the new Japanese government warned that Japan could face a “Greek-style” debt crisis. Are they trying to aggressively weaken the Yen?
2. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. The new British Prime Minister, David Cameron, said that inflation must be tackled. The current level of 3.7% is above the government’s target of 1-3%, and this isn’t expected to changed. CPI is expected to tick down to 3.5%. Mervyn King, the BOE’s governor, dismissed inflation until now. Raising the rates while the economy is struggling isn’t tempting. King and other senior members will speak in front of the Treasury Committee about inflation.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This survey of 350 analysts and investors is highly regarded and has a strong impact on the Euro. The forecast is for a slight recovery, from 45.8 to 48.7, after the initial wave of the contagious European debt problems. Note that there’s also an all-European figure, but the German one tends to have more impact.
4. American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of money into our out of the US, being a sign of confidence. The turmoil in Europe, as last month saw a huge leap - 140 billion instead of 50 that was predicted. The safe haven status that the US has will probably be reflected in this figure once again.
5. British employment data: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The number of unemployed people, as seen in the Claimant Count Change, dropped significantly in the past three months, exceeding expectations time after time. While this is good for the Pound, the complementary figure, unemployment rate, which is a lagging figure, rose to 8% and isn’t expected to move from there.
6. European inflation data: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Also in Europe, prices are rising, but the inflation rate isn’t a headache for the ECB, not yet. CPI is expected to show an annual rise of 1.6% and Core CPI a rise of only 0.8%. Any surprise will shake the Euro.
7. American housing figures: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Building permits disappointed last month as they weakened to 610K. A rise to 630K is expected now. A rise above 700K will convince the markets that the recovery is strong. Housing starts reached a higher level, 670K, but they’re expected to drop this time to 650K. Together with the PPI, this time is very volatile for the dollar.
8. American PPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Producer prices fell last month by 0.1%, and this fall is expected to accelerate this month to 0.5% – this is mainly the result of the drop in oil prices. Core PPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, is also expected to be tame – 0.1%. No inflation pressures from here.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 7:15 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes a decision on the Libor Rate only once a quarter. No change is expected this time, so the focus will be on the accompanying release of the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. Will the central bank express concerns about the currency? After the fall of the Japanese government, the Swissy got some renewed attention as a safe haven currency. The low levels of EUR/CHF could trigger an intervention, and this might happen together with the rate decision, as seen in the past.
10. American CPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The main inflation figure isn’t expected to be different than producer prices. CPI is expected to drop by 0.2% and Core CPI will probably rise by 0.1% – Bernanke will probably leave the wording about “interest rates being low for an extended period of time” once again, weakening the dollar.
11. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Last week saw another disappointment, as jobless claims are refusing to go down. This week isn’t expected to be different – the forecast is for a minor drop from 456K to 454K.
12. American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This major gauge has risen steadily in recent months, reaching 21.4 points. This trend will probably stop. The global turmoil will probably take its toll on this indicator.
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Euro makes multi year low: June 7 – 11 Weekly Outlook
After the whopping Non-Farm Payrolls, the new week starts slowly but becomes intense later on. Rate decisions from New Zealand, Europe and Britain, and American retail sales and consumer confidence are the highlights among other events. Let’s see the major market movers this week.
European news has been slower in the past week, with no major credit downgrades or depressing statements. But the crisis is far from over. Traders understand that the austerity measures that flood the continent are a serious damage to growth. These worries can be reflected in the European rate decision. OK, let’s begin:
1. Ben Bernanke talks: First appearance due on Tuesday at midnight GMT, at a conference in Washington; the second event is an official testimony in front of the House Budget Committee on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT, and the last one is later that day, at 20:00 GMT, at a conference in Richmond. Almost every public appearance provides some headlines that move the markets. With questions expected in most events and the growing pressure to raise the rates, it will interesting to see what wording Bernanke will use, and what delicate balance he’ll find behind hope of recovery and worries about Europe.
2. American Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting that decides on the rates, this report about the current economic conditions will shed some light on the state of the US economy, and might provide hints for the rate decision, now that some members are expressing the need to raise the rates.
3. New Zealand Rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. The RBNZ will probably be the third Western central bank to raise the rates. In his previous rate decision, Alan Bollard hinted about raising the rates. Fundamentals in New Zealand have been stabilizing. While they haven’t been superb, this could be enough to follow Australia and Canada and raise the Official Cash Rate from 2.5% to 2.75%. It’s important to notice the rate statement that accompanies the event.
4. Japanese Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. More bad news is expected in Japan after the resignation of the government. GDP for the first quarter will probably be revised to the downside – from 1.2% to 1.1%, pushing the yen lower.
5. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Australia continues to enjoy economic growth and has a good outlook for the future. This will probably be reflected in another gain in jobs. Australian employment change is expected to rise by 16K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4% – lower than most countries.
6. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Mervyn King, head of the BoE continues to face a dilemma – on one hand, inflation continues to pick up, making a rate hike necessary, but the fragile state of economy, that hardly emerged from the recession, means leaving the stimulus measures unchanged. King dismissed inflation so far. Consensus is for another month of unchanged rates – 0.5%. It’s important to watch the MPC Rate Statement. Any concern about inflation could boost the Pound.
7. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet of the ECB faces a similar problem, but in Europe the inflation is softer and the economic issues are harder, making it easier for him to leave the European Minimum Bid Rate unchanged. There are even calls for lowering the 1% interest rate. His words regarding the debt issues and the economy in general at the press conference (45 minutes later) will also shake the markets.
8. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature release of the trade balance in both countries always shakes USD/CAD. The Canadian surplus is expected to rise to 0.7 billion, while the American deficit is expected to remain almost unchanged around 40 billion.
9. American Unemployment Claims ublished on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The first release of jobless claims after the whopping Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to be rather stable – a drop from 453K to 447K, still within the same range that this weekly indicator showed us in recent months.
10. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Sales volume is advancing steadily. The pace of growth is expected to ease this time, from 0.4% last month to 0.2% this time. Also core retail sales, which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve, are predicted to slow to 0.1% from 0.4% last month.
11. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 13:55 GMT. The last event of the week is very important – consumer sentiment is expected to edge back up from 73.6 to 74.9, indicating that the drop we saw recently was only temporary. The university of Michigan publishes this preliminary report close to the market’s close, in a very volatile timing.
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 13, 2010
Stock Binary Options News
European shares surged on Monday behind outsize gains for financials, after European finance ministers and central bankers agreed a program designed to stop a crisis that started in Greece spreading through the rest of the region. The gains (FTSE and CAC40 indexes as much as 6%, Barclays jumped 11.2%), came after European finance ministers and central bankers agreed late Sunday on a new loan program that could top 750 billion euros ($970.6 billion), designed to keep the Greek debt crisis from spreading to other vulnerable European countries. The European Central Bank confirmed late Sunday that it will buy bonds in the secondary market to ensure liquidity for “dysfunctional” market segments.
The European Union’s massive funding to help defend vulnerable nations in the euro zone served to boost risk appetite that lifted most Asian stocks and currencies Monday. But while analysts described the move as just what the doctor prescribed to repair investor sentiment, some said worries about the ability of member European countries to slash their yawning fiscal deficits still remain.
Currency Binary Options News
The EURUSD surged against its major counterparts in early Asian trading Monday, after European finance ministers agreed late Sunday the rescue package aimed at containing damage from Greece’s debt woes. The EURJPY was up 2.7%. The EURUSD was trading as high as $1.30500, up from $1.2714 in late North American trading on Friday morning.
Commodities Binary Options News
Gold futures fell as far as $14 an ounce Monday in electronic trading on Globex afternoon in Asia, poised to give back Friday’s gain as news of a plan to prevent the spread of the Greek debt crisis dulled gold’s investment appeal. By the early Asian afternoon, Gold for June delivery was down $13, or 1.1%, to $1,197.40 an ounce on Globex, after touching an intraday low of $1,196.10 in electronic trading. rude-oil futures climbed more than 2% in electronic trading on Globex Monday afternoon in Asia, rebounding on the heels of a European plan to prevent the Greek debt crisis from spreading.
Crude Oil for June delivery, the most active contract, climbed $1.75, or 2.3%, to $76.86 a barrel on Globex after tapping an intraday high of $76.91 in electronic trading.
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Binary Options Daily – May 11, 2010
Stock Binary Options News
European shares Tuesday gave back some outsize gains made in the previous session, with miners declining, as worries about prospects for economic growth turned to China. The Stoxx Europe 600 index lost 1.3% to trade at 250.94, after soaring 7.2% on Monday after a package to support Greece and other peripheral European countries led to big gains for banks. The losses came as China’s inflation rate accelerated in April, as consumer and producer prices beat estimates, while bank lending rose nearly 30% faster than average forecasts. The data led analysts to speculate that rate hikes are on the way, as authorities attempt to keep the country’s red-hot economy in check. Asian shares weakened after the data from China, while U.S. stock futures were pointing to a downbeat open on Wall Street following strong gains on Monday.
U.S. stocks made their biggest one-day gain in 13 months Monday, re-establishing gains for the year, after an agreement on a nearly $1 trillion rescue plan to stabilize Europe lured investors back to a badly shaken market. After last week’s wipeout of gains made in 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 404.71 points, or 3.9%, to 10,785.14, its biggest daily gain since March 2009, and enough to bring it safely back into positive territory for the year.
Forex Binary Options News
The EURUSD traded at $1.2740 early Tuesday, with the common currency down 0.1%. GBPUSD declined 0.2% to $1.4814 as the main political parties continue to try and form a new government. The EURJPY fell in Asia Tuesday as bank dealers and short-term investors sold the common currency amid the continued threat of more credit rating downgrades to fiscally troubled euro-zone members despite a massive bailout plan announced earlier in the week.
Commodities Binary Options News
Crude fell Tuesday in Asia as the euro weakened against the dollar. The nearly $1 trillion rescue package for the euro-zone economies, which boosted crude prices Monday, hasn’t fully convinced traders, analysts said. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June traded at $76.41 a barrel at 0558 GMT, down $0.39 in the Globex electronic session. June Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.36 to $79.76 a barrel. Crude oil traders are more keenly watching the euro-zone crisis developments than the data, amid expectations of continued euro-dollar volatility.
Gold futures fell on Monday but were paring their losses as some investors cautioned Europe’s financial-stabilization plan lacked details and that it could raise inflation fears. Gold for June delivery, the most active contract, dropped $12.60, or 1%, to $1,198.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Stock Exchange.
Greece Rescue Package Approved
European shares surged on Monday behind outsize gains for financials, after European finance ministers and central bankers agreed a program designed to stop a crisis that started in Greece spreading through the rest of the region. The gains (FTSE and CAC40 indexes as much as 6%, Barclays jumped 11.2%), came after European finance ministers and central bankers agreed late Sunday on a new loan program that could top 750 billion euros ($970.6 billion), designed to keep the Greek debt crisis from spreading to other vulnerable European countries. The European Central Bank confirmed late Sunday that it will buy bonds in the secondary market to ensure liquidity for “dysfunctional” market segments.
The European Union’s massive funding to help defend vulnerable nations in the euro zone served to boost risk appetite that lifted most Asian stocks and currencies Monday. But while analysts described the move as just what the doctor prescribed to repair investor sentiment, some said worries about the ability of member European countries to slash their yawning fiscal deficits still remain.
Forex Binary Options
After the Non-Farm Payrolls, another busy week expects forex traders. A British rate decision, European GDP figures, and American consumer sentiment and retail sales are among the major events this week. Let’s see what’s expecting us.
Echoes from the British general election will continue to accompany us, but the important British indicators will slowly take over the scene. In Europe, the never-ending debt issues will also have a strong impact. OK, let’s start:
1. British rate decision: Published on Monday 11:00 GMT. This rate decision was delayed due to the elections. There are speculations that Mervyn King can step up his measures, now that the elections are behind us. Inflation is rising. While the chance of raising the Official Bank Rate is very small, a different rate statement regarding future policy could boost the Pound, although this King wants a weak Pound.
2. Australian Annual Budget Release: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. The Australian Treasury will present the budget to the parliament and will lay out the economic prospects for the next year. This event is likely to rock the Aussie, as well as the kiwi.
3. British employment figures: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. Last month’s Claimant Count Change, the earliest and most important employment figure, continued the positive trend and showed a drop of over 32,000 unemployed people. On the other hand, the unemployment rate jumped to 7.8%. A setback can be seen now, and this might hurt the Pound.
4. German GDP: Published on Wednesday at 6:00 GMT. Europe’s biggest economy badly disappointed markets in Q4 – the economy stalled. Germany was considered the locomotive of the Euro-zone, carrying the weak economies on its back. Germany must return to growth in Q1’s preliminary release for the Euro to rise.
5. European Flash GDP: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Although being released after the German and French figures, this publication also rocks the Euro. The economies in the Euro zone stalled in Q4 of 2010 – the initial report of 0.4% growth was later revised to no growth at all. There’s fear that Q1 will see a return to contraction – this will definitely hurt the Euro.
6. British BOE Inflation Report: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. Two days after the rate decision, Mervyn King has another opportunity to impact currency trading. This report doesn’t cover only inflation – it also contains updated economic forecasts and could hint about future rate policy. King will hold a press conference to accompany the release.
7. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature release in both countries always shakes USD/CAD. Canada enjoys a surplus in its balance while the US deficit is growing. A continuation of this trend could help the loonie.
8. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. After another rate hike, the sixth since the crisis, employment figures will probably justify this. Australia gained almost 20,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%. Both figures are expected to improve.
9. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The first weekly jobless claims release after the Non-Farm Payrolls will probably show a continuation of the trend – slightly less claims.
10. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This important consumer related figure always rocks the markets. Last month saw a strong rise of 1.6% and also Core retail sales exceeded expectations with a rise of 0.6%. Rises this time will probably be weaker.
11. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday 13:55 GMT. The university of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey fell short of expectations last time – it fell from 73.6 to 69.5, the lowest in 5 months. This is a highly regarded survey, and comes at a sensitive time – just before the market closes.
Binary Options Market Review 07-May-2010
Stock Binary Options News:
European shares dropped in a volatile session on Friday, with Germany’s impending vote on aid to Greece, the fallout from the turmoil on Wall Street and the likelihood of a hung parliament in the U.K. combining to fuel investor nervousness. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 2.7% in late morning trade, while the Nikkei 225 dropped 3.1% in Tokyo.
U.S. stock futures on Friday rose after one of the most tumultuous sessions in history, with markets prepping for the release of payrolls data, news on the Greek rescue and who will lead Britain — and bracing for further volatility.
U.S. stocks ended with steep losses Thursday after an afternoon meltdown lopped nearly 1,000 points off the Dow Jones Industrials Average– its biggest intraday drop ever – before a comeback of sorts, as Europe’s troubles took hold on Wall Street and talk of errant trades exacerbated the swift selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day down 347 points, or 3.2%, and at one point blue chip Procter & Gamble was down 37%.
Meanwhile, the issue that seemed to have hit stocks at the beginning of the day — euro-zone stability — will be in the spotlight as Germany votes on its contribution to the joint European Union-International Monetary Fund 110 billion euro loan package for Greece. Citigroup strategists say the Greece issues could cause a global equities correction of between 10% and 20%.
Through Thursday, U.S. stocks are down 7.6% from April highs.
Currency Binary Options News:
The euro climbed 0.9 percent to $1.2737 as of 10:58 a.m. in London, paring its decline this week to 4.2 percent, the biggest weekly drop since October 2008, the month following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The 16-nation currency jumped 2.6 percent to 117.25 yen, paring its drop in the five days to 6 percent. The dollar advanced 1.6 percent to 92.07 yen. The pound dropped 1.7 percent to $1.4578, trading as low as $1.4476, the lowest level since April 2009.
The pound tumbled to a 13-month low versus the dollar as the U.K. parliamentary election failed to produce an outright winner, fanning concern the next government won’t be able to reduce the budget deficit fast enough.
The Australian dollar rose on speculation investors bought the currency after its drop to a three-month low. The Aussie climbed 0.8 percent to 89.21 U.S. cents, and advanced 2.6 percent to 82.25 yen.
Commodities Binary Options News:
Crude oil rose, snapping three days of declines, as the dollar weakened versus the euro and on speculation this week’s 10 percent fall may have been excessive. Futures are still heading for their biggest drop since July on concerns Europe’s debt crisis will derail the economic recovery. Prices touched an 11-week low of $74.58 a barrel in New York yesterday.
Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, rose by the most in 15 months to the highest ever. Gold for immediate delivery surged to $1,210.70 an ounce yesterday, just 1.3 percent short of its peak of $1,226.56 an ounce reached Dec. 3. The metal was down 0.2 percent at $1,206 an ounce at 8:47 a.m. in Singapore.
Binary Options Market Review 06-May-2010
Stock Binary Options
Asian Sell-Off! Almost all of the Asian region’s major indexes fall 1%-3%. Most Asian markets trade sharply lower on increasing concerns over the spreading debt crisis in Europe, with Japanese exporters with high exposure to Europe taking a hit from the euro’s weakness. Forex Binary Options are rebounding this hour and traded around the 1.2796 level.
European shares also lost ground on Thursday as investors continued to fret about debt levels in countries on the edge of the region. The U.K. FTSE 100 index declined 0.6% to 5,309.34 on the day of a general election, while the German DAX index declined 0.4% to 5,935.26 and the French CAC-40 index lost 1% to 3,600.66. The European Central Bank will announce a decision on interest rates later Thursday.
U.S. stocks fell for a second day Wednesday as worries that Europe’s debt trouble is escalating overshadowed economic reports showing growth in the services sector and additional hiring by private firms. After a triple-digit slide and then a brief visit to positive territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 60 points, or 0.6%, to 10,866.83. The latest action is leading U.S. market commentators to suggest that stocks are going much lower, and that the U.S. market’s pullback could be heavier than any since March 2009.
The EUR-USD fell to a fresh 14-month low against the dollar in Asia Thursday as riots in Greece fueled investor concern that the nation can’t implement fiscal reform steps smoothly and may face higher default risk. Three people were killed during demonstrations in Athens Wednesday in protest against the government’s spending-cut and tax-hike plans to avert national bankruptcy. Over the weekend, the government agreed to an EUR110 billion ($141 billion) European Union and IMF debt bailout. The development prompted investors to speculate the nation may not be able to promptly take necessary steps to avoid default, which in turn will increase worries that other debt-suffering European nations such as Portugal may experience similar fates.
Oil Binary Options
Oil prices settled under $80 a barrel on Wednesday, pulled down by a stronger U.S. dollar, concerns about the political unrest in Greece and the state of other European economies, and a higher-than-expected rise in crude inventories. Crude oil for June delivery slumped $2.77, or 3.4%, to $79.97 a barrel on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That is the lowest price for a most-active contract since March 15, according to FactSet Research. Losses were deeper mid-morning and in the last hour of trading. This action is leading market commentators to suggest that people are worried that the bull market is over, that maybe we are seeing the tipping point.
Gold Binary Options
Gold changed direction to settle marginally higher on Wednesday as bullion regained at least some its glow as a hedge against macroeconomic and political unrest. Gold turned as the euro bounced off lows and U.S. stocks paired losses. This has lead market commentators to suggest that the the global political and macroeconomic background is bullish for gold, it shows the viability of gold as an alternative currency. Gold for June delivery added $5.80, or 0.5%, to $1,175 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Binary Options Game Plan-USD/CHF Breakout 09/12/09
As you can see in the graph below, the USD/CHF u broke out to a new month high.
It seems like a great scenario for buying USD/CHF binary option call or entering a long spot position.
Binary Options Game Plan for the USD/CHF 08/12/09
We are witnessing a short-term strength in the USD/CHF trading activity, With a recent breakout of the 1.02260.
In such a case we recommend going long with predetermined risk/reward ratio using USD/CHF Binary Call Option
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