Binary Options Market Outlook – July 12 – 16
Spotlight:
Google earnings forecast:
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Conference Call – 4:30PM EDT
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Release – 4:00PM EDT
Google is set to release its Q2 earnings report later this week. In the meantime investors have been buying Google stock in anticipation that Google may again have positive earnings and reflecting that the stock may be oversold. Earlier Google passed through its 20 day moving average and resistance is expected ahead of its 50 day moving average.
U.S. Stocks: Earnings Season Begins July 9, 2010
Alcoa starts week that includes reports from Intel, Google, AMD, GE, Citi, Bank of America and Chase. The S&P500 index has been on the rise in anticipation of earnings season as investors are optimistic about the Q2 numbers.
Currencies: U.S. dollar will be tested by economic release data
American Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This all-important consumer related figure was very disappointing last month – sales dropped by 1.2% and core retails sales by 1.1%. This hurt the dollar last month. A recovery now will support it.
American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After a positive surprise last week, with a drop back to 454K. All in all, this tight range isn’t too good. Only a drop under 430K will give hope of a serious improvement in the job market. A rise above 480K will be worrying.
American CPI: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. A rise in consumer prices is the key for a rate hike, but this isn’t due soon. CPI dropped by 0.2% last month and is expected to tick up this time. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by only 0.1% last month, and no big change is due this time.
Gold to hold $1,200 oz
Gold futures are widely expected to hold the $1,200 oz resistance. All this depends largely on earnings season in the U.S., as investors decide whether or not to move into riskier investments or to jump to safe havens.
Oil prices to consolidate with lower prices possible
Oil futures may follow the dollar index and U.S. earnings reports. Whether U.S. stocks continue higher as expected will affect the U.S. dollar as investors seek riskier assets.
Binary Options Gameplan – 07-07-10
The most interesting instrument in the spotlight is definitely the EUR/USD, which is dragging all other instruments with it, like Gold and U.S. stocks.
Looking at a technical analysis of the EUR/USD, a very impressive Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern followed by a Bull Flag consolidation is highlighted in the daily chart below. This will lead to higher prices in the short term. But before the prices move higher, the Slow Stochastic analysis (below the chart) which is currently OverBought (above 80) must move back below 80 out of Overbought territory.
Break out of the Head and Shoulders upwards can be a trigger for buying a Binary Call Options. Failure of this currency to rise with the Stochastic overbought level can be the trigger for a trend reversal downwards and buying Binary Put Options.
Click on the Chart to enlarge:
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Weekly Outlook June 21 – 25
The upcoming week is quite busy: a rate decision in the US, housing figures and the presentation of an emergency budget in the UK among other events. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events this week.
The market disregards the European troubles. In the past week, the focus was on the Spanish credit crunch. Nevertheless, the Euro continued recovering, and so did other currencies, that truly enjoy good economies, such the loonie, which is ready for parity. American figures will dominate the scene this week. Let’s start:
- German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 8:00 GMT. This important indicator has been more optimistic than other German surveys in the past months, but it also stopped rising last month. It’s now expected to edge down from 101.5 to 101.2 points, as uncertainty grows in Europe.
- British Emergency Budget: Published on Tuesday at 11:30 GMT. Squeezing the budget deficit is a top priority for the new government. George Osborne, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, will go to parliament and present the cuts. The budget release includes updated economic forecasts, which will rock the Pound.
- American Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Small surprises have been seen in this important housing sector indicator. This time, a big leap is expected – from 5.77 to 6.23 million, the highest in 6 months. High volatility is expected around the release.
- American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Complementing Tuesday’s release, this indicator is expected to be different this time, and drop from 504K to 435K. Note that the impact will be rather muted due to the upcoming to rate decision. Nervous trading is predicted.
- American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve isn’t expected to move. Not so soon. Employment is still problematic in the US, and inflation doesn’t pose a threat. Yet again, the focus won’t be on the Federal Funds Rate, but on the accompanying FOMC Statement. The wording about leaving the interest rate low for an “extended period of time”, will probably remain despite some members’ will to drop it. Watch out for a few hours of action.
- New Zealand GDP: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand is rather late with its GDP release for Q1. After a rise of 0.8% in Q4 of 2010, the growth rate is expected to be weaker – 0.5%. This goes hand in hand with Australia’s weaker growth rate. The Aussie will also move after this release.
- American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. As in every week, this release is closely watched. Another disappointment was seen in the past week, with jobless claims rising to 472K. A small drop to 461K will probably be seen now. Only a drop under 430K will convince everybody that a real recovery arrived.
- American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This release will probably be very confusing. Durable Goods Orders jumped by 2.8% last time, and are expected to correct with a drop of 1% this time. Core Durable Goods Orders fell by 1.1% last time and are expected to rise in the same scale this time. Only a move of both figures in the same direction will move the markets.
- Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The Japanese government’s efforts to tackle the deflation will probably be partially fruitful. The annualized level of prices is expected to show a drop of 1.5%, better than last month’s 1.6% number. This is the earliest inflation figure in Japan, and tends to have a strong impact.
- American GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This is the third and final release of American GDP for the third quarter. The second release was worse than the first one, and showed an annual growth rate of only 3% in Q1, much weaker than the previous quarter’s leap. This growth rate will probably be confirmed now.
That’s it for the major events for this week. Stay tuned for specific currency updates.
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Weekly Outlook June 14 – 18
The upcoming week consists of inflation figures from all over the world, a major German survey, rate decisions from Japan and Switzerland among other events. Did the dollar take a pause, or will its new weakness continue?
We see a growing gap between the commodity currencies and the rest of the world. Australia enjoys a great job market, the rate has been lifted in New Zealand, and Canada is doing well on all parameters. This week will be mostly about the US. Let’s start:
1. Japanese rate decision: On Tuesday morning. The BOJ isn’t expected to change the rock-bottom Overnight Call Rate of 0.1%, but the rate statement, and especially the press conference afterwards, will probably trigger interesting statements about the state of the economy. Officials in the new Japanese government warned that Japan could face a “Greek-style” debt crisis. Are they trying to aggressively weaken the Yen?
2. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. The new British Prime Minister, David Cameron, said that inflation must be tackled. The current level of 3.7% is above the government’s target of 1-3%, and this isn’t expected to changed. CPI is expected to tick down to 3.5%. Mervyn King, the BOE’s governor, dismissed inflation until now. Raising the rates while the economy is struggling isn’t tempting. King and other senior members will speak in front of the Treasury Committee about inflation.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This survey of 350 analysts and investors is highly regarded and has a strong impact on the Euro. The forecast is for a slight recovery, from 45.8 to 48.7, after the initial wave of the contagious European debt problems. Note that there’s also an all-European figure, but the German one tends to have more impact.
4. American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of money into our out of the US, being a sign of confidence. The turmoil in Europe, as last month saw a huge leap - 140 billion instead of 50 that was predicted. The safe haven status that the US has will probably be reflected in this figure once again.
5. British employment data: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The number of unemployed people, as seen in the Claimant Count Change, dropped significantly in the past three months, exceeding expectations time after time. While this is good for the Pound, the complementary figure, unemployment rate, which is a lagging figure, rose to 8% and isn’t expected to move from there.
6. European inflation data: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Also in Europe, prices are rising, but the inflation rate isn’t a headache for the ECB, not yet. CPI is expected to show an annual rise of 1.6% and Core CPI a rise of only 0.8%. Any surprise will shake the Euro.
7. American housing figures: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Building permits disappointed last month as they weakened to 610K. A rise to 630K is expected now. A rise above 700K will convince the markets that the recovery is strong. Housing starts reached a higher level, 670K, but they’re expected to drop this time to 650K. Together with the PPI, this time is very volatile for the dollar.
8. American PPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Producer prices fell last month by 0.1%, and this fall is expected to accelerate this month to 0.5% – this is mainly the result of the drop in oil prices. Core PPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, is also expected to be tame – 0.1%. No inflation pressures from here.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 7:15 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes a decision on the Libor Rate only once a quarter. No change is expected this time, so the focus will be on the accompanying release of the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. Will the central bank express concerns about the currency? After the fall of the Japanese government, the Swissy got some renewed attention as a safe haven currency. The low levels of EUR/CHF could trigger an intervention, and this might happen together with the rate decision, as seen in the past.
10. American CPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The main inflation figure isn’t expected to be different than producer prices. CPI is expected to drop by 0.2% and Core CPI will probably rise by 0.1% – Bernanke will probably leave the wording about “interest rates being low for an extended period of time” once again, weakening the dollar.
11. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Last week saw another disappointment, as jobless claims are refusing to go down. This week isn’t expected to be different – the forecast is for a minor drop from 456K to 454K.
12. American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This major gauge has risen steadily in recent months, reaching 21.4 points. This trend will probably stop. The global turmoil will probably take its toll on this indicator.
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Euro makes multi year low: June 7 – 11 Weekly Outlook
After the whopping Non-Farm Payrolls, the new week starts slowly but becomes intense later on. Rate decisions from New Zealand, Europe and Britain, and American retail sales and consumer confidence are the highlights among other events. Let’s see the major market movers this week.
European news has been slower in the past week, with no major credit downgrades or depressing statements. But the crisis is far from over. Traders understand that the austerity measures that flood the continent are a serious damage to growth. These worries can be reflected in the European rate decision. OK, let’s begin:
1. Ben Bernanke talks: First appearance due on Tuesday at midnight GMT, at a conference in Washington; the second event is an official testimony in front of the House Budget Committee on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT, and the last one is later that day, at 20:00 GMT, at a conference in Richmond. Almost every public appearance provides some headlines that move the markets. With questions expected in most events and the growing pressure to raise the rates, it will interesting to see what wording Bernanke will use, and what delicate balance he’ll find behind hope of recovery and worries about Europe.
2. American Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting that decides on the rates, this report about the current economic conditions will shed some light on the state of the US economy, and might provide hints for the rate decision, now that some members are expressing the need to raise the rates.
3. New Zealand Rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. The RBNZ will probably be the third Western central bank to raise the rates. In his previous rate decision, Alan Bollard hinted about raising the rates. Fundamentals in New Zealand have been stabilizing. While they haven’t been superb, this could be enough to follow Australia and Canada and raise the Official Cash Rate from 2.5% to 2.75%. It’s important to notice the rate statement that accompanies the event.
4. Japanese Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. More bad news is expected in Japan after the resignation of the government. GDP for the first quarter will probably be revised to the downside – from 1.2% to 1.1%, pushing the yen lower.
5. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Australia continues to enjoy economic growth and has a good outlook for the future. This will probably be reflected in another gain in jobs. Australian employment change is expected to rise by 16K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4% – lower than most countries.
6. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Mervyn King, head of the BoE continues to face a dilemma – on one hand, inflation continues to pick up, making a rate hike necessary, but the fragile state of economy, that hardly emerged from the recession, means leaving the stimulus measures unchanged. King dismissed inflation so far. Consensus is for another month of unchanged rates – 0.5%. It’s important to watch the MPC Rate Statement. Any concern about inflation could boost the Pound.
7. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet of the ECB faces a similar problem, but in Europe the inflation is softer and the economic issues are harder, making it easier for him to leave the European Minimum Bid Rate unchanged. There are even calls for lowering the 1% interest rate. His words regarding the debt issues and the economy in general at the press conference (45 minutes later) will also shake the markets.
8. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature release of the trade balance in both countries always shakes USD/CAD. The Canadian surplus is expected to rise to 0.7 billion, while the American deficit is expected to remain almost unchanged around 40 billion.
9. American Unemployment Claims ublished on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The first release of jobless claims after the whopping Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to be rather stable – a drop from 453K to 447K, still within the same range that this weekly indicator showed us in recent months.
10. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Sales volume is advancing steadily. The pace of growth is expected to ease this time, from 0.4% last month to 0.2% this time. Also core retail sales, which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve, are predicted to slow to 0.1% from 0.4% last month.
11. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 13:55 GMT. The last event of the week is very important – consumer sentiment is expected to edge back up from 73.6 to 74.9, indicating that the drop we saw recently was only temporary. The university of Michigan publishes this preliminary report close to the market’s close, in a very volatile timing.
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 25, 2010
Forex update: Euro in free-fall
The euro kept falling against the dollar and yen as concerns grow that the euro-zone’s sovereign debt turmoil has started to undermine the health of the region’s financial system.
British shares fall through key level
The FTSE 100 falls below the 5,000 level for the first time since late last year on Tuesday, pulled down by heavy losses for banks and miners.
European stocks suffer steep losses
European shares fell sharply on Tuesday, with banks and miners taking the brunt of the selling as investors fretted over tensions in Korea as well as problems with debt burdens and bank balance sheets closer to home.
U.S. pointing to a very weak start after steep losses on Monday
U.S. stock futures pointed to a turbulent start Tuesday amid tensions in North Korea and euro-zone debt and bank concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 199 to 9,844.00. A late sell-off sent stocks to a steep loss Monday that erased all the previous session’s gains, underscoring that investors’ fears about Europe’s credit crisis and tighter rules on Wall Street are still running strong.
‘Bull case’ for Apple
Apple’s shares get a lift after a Morgan Stanley analyst says the tech blue-chip could be worth $400 a share.
Oil edges up despite strong dollar
Crude inched up Monday, hanging on to higher prices even as futures battled a stronger dollar and a down day for U.S. stocks.
No surprise, Gold higher
Gold and other metals futures bounced back on Monday, with investors more eager to buy bullion as prices had come off from their record mid-May highs.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 24, 2010
Euro, Dollar Up vs Yen
The dollar and the euro ticked up against the yen in Asia Monday as short-term players in the region reacted to gains in Chinese share markets by selling the safe-haven yen in favor of the two riskier currencies.
Oil looking for a stronger start early this week
Crude futures rose in Asia Monday. Also on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in July traded at $70.71 a barrel.
Gold still weaker
Gold futures ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, as investors dumped the metal, in order to raise cash for stock bargain hunting. “We maintain a positive view on gold given longer-term investor interest remains strong. However, in the near term profit taking and margin requirements given elevated speculative interest could result in a deeper correction,” said market analysts.
U.S. Stocks will look to economic data
U.S. economic data will be flowing thick and fast in the week ahead, with housing reports a particular focus.
European Stocks start the week strongly
European shares climbed on Monday morning, with banks taking back some ground lost last week amid jitters about sovereign finances.
All Eyes on the Euro: May 24-28 Weekly Outlook
The Greek crisis was not only far from over, but it turned into a global issue. The latest news is the German’s parliament’s approval of the latest bailout package. Fresh news from Europe will continue shaking the markets, as well as the indicators.
GDP releases from the US and Britain, housing figures from the US are among the major market movers expected this week. Will the markets stabilize? Or will the crazy trading continue? Here’s the weekly outlook.
1. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector is an important element in the economy. Existing home sales are the vast majority of sales, so this figure always has a strong impact on forex trading. Last month saw 5.35 million sales, significantly better than expected. Another improvement is predicted this time – 5.61 million. Note that this release comes on an empty calendar.
2. British GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the initial release, Britain’s economy grew by only 0.2% in Q1. This figure was a blow to the Pound. In this revised version (not final yet), an improvement to 0.3% is expected. This will rock the Pound.
3. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board showed a great result last month – 57.9, the highest in 18 months. Another improvement is predicted in this major indicator – a survey of 5,000 people.
4. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve flies to Japan amidst the big crisis in Europe. In a speech about central banks, Bernanke will be asked questions by the audience and might rock the markets.
5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure was confusing last month: orders saw a drop of 0.6%, while the core figure was totally different – a rise of 3.5%. These numbers will shake the markets again. A rise of 1.4% is predicted in orders, and 0.5% in core orders.
6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release of existing home sales, this figure will probably continue the positive trend from last month, when new home sales leaped from 324K to 411K, rocking the markets. A rise to 420K is expected now.
7. American GDP: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This is the second release of GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Also here, more good news is expected – the annual growth rate is expected to be revised from 3.2% to 3.5%, getting closer to the outstanding growth rate in Q4.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This important weekly release disappointed last time with a jump to 471K. Jobless claims are expected to return to 446K this time. A similar leap in April was followed by a return to the 440Ks. Note that the this number failed to drop below 430K – which seems a very strong barrier. This must be broken for the unemployment rate to drop as well.
9. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s biggest problem is the drop in prices – deflation. This indicator from the capital is the earliest and most important of all inflation numbers. After showing an annual drop of 2% in prices for quite some time, this figure is expected to show a smaller drop – 1.5%, the lowest in 11 months. This could boost the yen, that already enjoys risk aversive trading.
10. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. The former “safe currency” enjoys a strong economy. This major composite index edged up in the past months, and is now predicted to rise from 1.99 to 2.04, showing the stability and strength of the economy. Will it help the currency?
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 19, 2010
Euro at a four year low!
The euro touched a new four-year low against the U.S. dollar in early Asian trading Wednesday, after new reports Tuesday that Germany will ban certain types of short-selling heightened market worries about Europe.
Oil headed south…
Not surprisingly, and as we predicted over the last few days, as the U.S. dollar strengthened, crude-oil futures fell below $68 a barrel in electronic trading Wednesday afternoon in Asia, extending their losses after closing at a seven-month low. Crude Oil Binary Options are also available for trading at StartOptions.com
Gold cooling off after a big run
Gold futures ended lower Tuesday as physical demand was seen as slack and investors pared their positions following bullion’s recent rise. “The uptrend is still intact,” said market analysts, adding that gold’s floor is likely to hover around the $1,214-an-ounce mark.
U.S. Stocks drop on tuesday
U.S. stocks landed with a thud on Tuesday, giving up earlier attempts at gains, as the euro’s slide soured sentiment among investors viewing the currency as a proxy for Europe’s sovereign-debt troubles.
U.S. Stocks headed for a weak start
U.S. stock futures drop Wednesday, the first day of the hastily-drawn-up German short-sale ban, which served to reinforce rather than dispel worries over the health of European governments and the lenders that possess their debt.
Binary Options Daily – May 11, 2010
Stock Binary Options News
European shares Tuesday gave back some outsize gains made in the previous session, with miners declining, as worries about prospects for economic growth turned to China. The Stoxx Europe 600 index lost 1.3% to trade at 250.94, after soaring 7.2% on Monday after a package to support Greece and other peripheral European countries led to big gains for banks. The losses came as China’s inflation rate accelerated in April, as consumer and producer prices beat estimates, while bank lending rose nearly 30% faster than average forecasts. The data led analysts to speculate that rate hikes are on the way, as authorities attempt to keep the country’s red-hot economy in check. Asian shares weakened after the data from China, while U.S. stock futures were pointing to a downbeat open on Wall Street following strong gains on Monday.
U.S. stocks made their biggest one-day gain in 13 months Monday, re-establishing gains for the year, after an agreement on a nearly $1 trillion rescue plan to stabilize Europe lured investors back to a badly shaken market. After last week’s wipeout of gains made in 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 404.71 points, or 3.9%, to 10,785.14, its biggest daily gain since March 2009, and enough to bring it safely back into positive territory for the year.
Forex Binary Options News
The EURUSD traded at $1.2740 early Tuesday, with the common currency down 0.1%. GBPUSD declined 0.2% to $1.4814 as the main political parties continue to try and form a new government. The EURJPY fell in Asia Tuesday as bank dealers and short-term investors sold the common currency amid the continued threat of more credit rating downgrades to fiscally troubled euro-zone members despite a massive bailout plan announced earlier in the week.
Commodities Binary Options News
Crude fell Tuesday in Asia as the euro weakened against the dollar. The nearly $1 trillion rescue package for the euro-zone economies, which boosted crude prices Monday, hasn’t fully convinced traders, analysts said. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June traded at $76.41 a barrel at 0558 GMT, down $0.39 in the Globex electronic session. June Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.36 to $79.76 a barrel. Crude oil traders are more keenly watching the euro-zone crisis developments than the data, amid expectations of continued euro-dollar volatility.
Gold futures fell on Monday but were paring their losses as some investors cautioned Europe’s financial-stabilization plan lacked details and that it could raise inflation fears. Gold for June delivery, the most active contract, dropped $12.60, or 1%, to $1,198.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Stock Exchange.
