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Binary Options Market Outlook – August 30 – September 3
This week’s major economic reports include consumer-spending on Monday, ISM data on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey of manufacturers is expected to fall slightly to 53.5% from 55.5%.
Affecting the Australian (AUD) dollar on Monday are Building approvals (month over month) and retail sales (month over month) to be issued 9:30pm US EST.
On Tuesday the Canadian (CAD) month over month GDP figures will be released before the market opens.
Wednesday will see the British pound (GBP) affected by the UK manufacturing report and homes report issued by Halifax Bank of Scotland.
Thursday keep an eye out for the ECB press conference, surely to affect the EUR/USD pair.
The major news for the week will naturally be focused on Friday’s Non-farm Payroll Report (NFP), which has produced disappointing results over the last two months. Investors will continue to focus on meager job growth in the US, with a jobless rate ticking up to to 9.6% from 9.5%, following the layoff of temporary Census Workers. That number would also look far worse if it included the people who are too discouraged to look for work.
Job concerns to weigh on the markets
Lets look at how this will affect the major markets:
Stocks:
Last week stocks shot higher as investors searching for confidence were reassured by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s vow to do whatever it takes to revive the shaky economy. Let’s see if that momentum continues this week.
Following his speech The Dow Jones Industrial Average vaulted 125 points, or 1.3%, to 10111 during early afternoon trading.
Currencies:
Japan’s yen erased its early losses against major rivals Monday, after an emergency easing by the Bank of Japan failed to stem the currency’s strength for long.
The dollar slipped to ¥84.94 from ¥85.39 yen in late North American trading on Friday, after rising as high as ¥85.88 after the special meeting was announced. The yen hit a 15-year high versus the dollar last week.
The euro also slipped against the yen, buying ¥108.06, down from ¥108.75 late Friday and from a Monday high of ¥109.55.
Commodities:
Crude futures were little changed in Asia Monday, supported by a weak dollar, but lacking any upward momentum from supply-demand fundamentals.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $75.11 a barrel at 0655 GMT, down 6 cents in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 10 cents to $76.55 a barrel.
Oil has bounced back from a trough of $70.76/barrel reached Aug. 25 as investors renew their appetite for risk and sell the greenback. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was down 0.02 at 82.74.
Binary Options Daily Review August 27, 2010
Stocks:
U.S. stocks fell Thursday as a fall in new claims for unemployment benefits offered only slight consolation to a market hammered by a recent spate of largely dismal economic reports. The question on everyone’s mind now is whether US Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke will call for further stimulus dollars to keep the recovery going on a sustainable path. He will be speaking to the US congress on the matter today, which the markets will be following closely.
In trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 74.25 points to 9,985.81, with all but two of its 30 components ending in the red.
The S&P 500 declined 8.11 points to 1,047.22, with health-care companies and consumer staples weighing the most among its 10 industry groups. Material and industrial firms fared the best.
Currencies:
The Euro has tested support at 1.2695 session low right at European opening, which held firm and the pair bounced up to reach session high levels at 1.2740, approaching Thursday’s high at 1.2765.
On the upside, above 1.2735 session high, the pair could face resistance at 1.2765 (Aug 26 high) and then 1.2795/00 (Intra-day resistance). On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.2695 (session low), with next levels at 1.2650 (Aug 26 low) and 1.2585 (Aug 24 low).
The yen fell against the dollar and euro in Asian trading Friday after reports that Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan plans to hold a press conference later in the day to deal with the yen’s strength sparked selling on hopes that government may undertake some sort of concrete steps.
More Stimulus to Come?
Commodities Outlook:
Crude oil futures were slightly lower Friday in Asia against a backdrop of mixed regional equities, but were finding support ahead of a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in which he may suggest more stimulus measures for the world’s largest economy.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $73.31 a barrel at 0629 GMT, down $0.05 in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.18 to $74.84 a barrel.
Binary Options Daily Review August 26, 2010
Stocks:
U.S. stocks finished higher on Wednesday, after a late reversal helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average end a four-session losing streak, with investors buying up stocks of home builders and other consumer issues following further round of disappointing housing news.
In Asia shares traded mostly higher Thursday, with several indexes moving in and out of negative territory. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average returned from an afternoon lull to trade 0.4% higher, and the Topix up 0.2%, as the yen remained little changed from its morning levels.
Currencies:
The dollar regained its earlier advance versus the Japanese yen but stayed lower against the euro on Wednesday as stocks turned up after being weighed by softer-than-predicted U.S. economic data. Still, investors started looking for real value and the trend is expected to continue in today’s trading.
The strong dollar was supported by U.S. data showed durable-goods orders rose last month but at a pace far less than analysts anticipated.
The euro was also caught between Portugal’s strong bond auction and Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Ireland’s bond rating, while the yen fell back somewhat. The yen tends to be the biggest loser when stocks decline, which currency traders take as an indication that investors are more comfortable taking risks and moving out of the safety of the low yielding yen. The dollar also often loses against the euro when risk appetite increases.
Commodities:
Crude-oil futures ended Wednesday in positive territory, despite a surprise increase in inventories and weak economic data that offered little hope for a real surge in demand.
Crude for October delivery rose 89 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $72.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after setting an 11-week low on Tuesday. Earlier in the session, oil had posted an intraday low of $70.69 a barrel.
Crude prices have fallen nearly $10 a barrel in just over two weeks following weaker equities and a stronger U.S. dollar amid growing doubts about the strength of the global economic recovery. While the bearish undertone prevails, analysts say crude might be set up for a technical bounceback in the near term with strong support around $70 a barrel.
Binary Options Daily Review August 25, 2010
Stocks:
U.K. stocks were broadly flat Wednesday, as losses for Tullow Oil were offset by well-received results from BHP Billiton and insurer Admiral Group.
The U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 index rose 0.1% to 5,158.60, helped by a 1% gain for heavyweight miner BHP Billiton after it said fiscal-year profit more than doubled to $12.72 billion.
A broad decline in U.S. stocks that sent the Dow Industrials briefly below 10,000 ended sharply Tuesday, after poor data on the housing market intensified worries about the global economic recovery.
Currencies:
The Japanese yen eased against its rivals during Asian trading Wednesday after hitting multiyear highs the previous day, with the market watching for possible intervention by Tokyo to curb the currency’s rise.
In East Asian afternoon trading, the U.S. dollar changed hands at ¥84.38, recovering from its 15-year low of ¥83.57 Tuesday.
Commodities:
Crude oil futures rose slightly in Asia trading Wednesday as fresh buying emerged after prices closed at their lowest levels in more than two months.
A weaker U.S. dollar against the euro helped support buying interest, but gains were limited by a fall in regional equities.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $71.87 a barrel at 0653 GMT, up $0.24 in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.36 to $72.74 a barrel.
Crude prices have fallen nearly $10 a barrel in just over two weeks following weaker equities and a stronger U.S. dollar amid growing doubts about the strength of the global economic recovery. While the bearish undertone prevails, analysts say crude might be set up for a technical bounceback in the near term with strong support around $70 a barrel.
Binary Options Daily Review August 24, 2010
Stocks:
U.S. stocks finished in the red for a third straight day as salient economic concerns weighed on the market, overshadowing excitement over a slew of recent acquisitions.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 39.21 points, or 0.4%, at 10,174.41, after gaining as much as 91 points in intraday trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.92% to 2,159.63 while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 0.4% to 1067.36.
Economists are expecting the US government’s estimate of 2.4% economic growth for the second quarter to be cut to 1.2% when it is released Friday, which would represent a clear slowdown from earlier in the year.
Currencies:
While remaining in range to break lower, the USD/JPY has most recently halted its slide at 85.00 where it commenced to pull back slightly. So far, the pair is trading back up around 85.10 where it seems to be finding modest resistance to climb any higher.
After opening the week facing a 35-pip downside gap, AUD/NZD managed to regain over 70 pips on Monday. The Aussie was able to fill the opening gap and reached an intraday high at 1.2643 against the Kiwi during the European session.
However the AUD/NZD retreated somewhat and closed around 1.2600 in the last hours of trading Monday and continues to move horizontally into a tight range between 1.2574 and 1.2615 during the current Asian session.
Commodities:
Gold retreated for a third day as an advance in the dollar curbed demand for commodities, including precious metals.
Gold for immediate delivery declined 0.5 percent to $1,220.55 an ounce at 10:46 a.m. in Singapore. December-delivery futures fell 0.5 percent to $1,222.20 an ounce.
While gold is up 11% in trading this year the precious metal is expected to pare any further gains as demand for stocks, commodities and energy thin.
Binary Options Market Outlook – August 23 – 27
Will the US market continue to see red? Corporate activity looks to pick up the slack in growth.
Let’s see how the US markets react to continued uncertainty and last week’s bearish sentiment. U.S. stocks declined Friday on light summer trading volumes, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its second consecutive week of losses as concerns about economic growth weighed on investor sentiment. Offsetting concerns about the sagging recovery in the job market is a resurgence in M&A activity – as corporations in a stronger position to make strategic acquisitions are starting to move again.
Major economic reports to keep an eye on include Tuesday’s Canada core retail sales report (m/m), Wednesday’s Germany Ifo Business Climate and US new home sales, Thursday’s UK Nationwide Building Society’s home sale prices and US unemployment claims, toppping off with Friday’s UK revised GDP and comments by US Fed Reserve Ben Bernanke.
Lets look at how this will affect the major markets:
Stocks:
Leading the Dow’s decline Friday, Hewlett-Packard Co. dropped 2.2%. The technology giant’s profit climbed 6.1% on higher world-wide sales in its fiscal third-quarter, its final quarter with Mark Hurd at its helm. But investors have been nervous about H-P since Hurd left the company two weeks ago. Looks like things might be brighter on the other side of the pond — European stocks were trading up in early action on Monday, led by the financial and mining sectors, with SABMiller and HSBC Holdings in focus following deal talk. Keep an eye on European heavyweights with exposure to Asian markets. Overnight, Asian shares traded mostly higher while Australian stocks were steady.
Currencies:
The Australian dollar gained back most of its losses against its U.S. counterpart Monday, after falling in the wake of Saturday’s indecisive weekend election. The Aussie was buying 89.10 U.S cents, down 0.2%, after Saturday’s general election led to what will likely be the first hung parliament there in 70 years.
The Euro has dropped about 40 pips lower following weaker than expected German advanced Manufacturing PMI figures breaking through Asian sessions trading range floor, at 1.2680, to reach a fresh session low at 1.2680.
Commodities:
Despite opening the week under $74.00 a barrel, the front-month crude contract has recovered slightly over Asia on a weakening US dollar. So far the contract for October delivery trades at $74.19, yet remains fragile near 6-week lows due to last week’s disappointing US data releases.
The biggest factor weighing heavily on crude oil as of recent has been the sluggish economic recovery in key economies with typically high energy demand. In the US, the world’s leading energy consumer, job growth is much slower than analysts’ were predicting with initial jobless claims jumping to a 9-month high in 500,000 this past Thursday. Larger than expected crude inventories is also a contributing factor as stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week.
Binary Options Daily Review August 20, 2010
Stocks:
U.S. stocks fell Thursday as disappointing data on the jobs market and regional manufacturing added to doubts about the recovery, dampening enthusiasm that came with Intel Corp.’s $7.7 billion deal to acquire McAfee Inc.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 144.33 points, or 1.4%, to end at 10,271.21, with all 30 components in the red for the day. The blue-chip average’s loss broke two straight days of gains.
S&P 500 (1 Year)
Currencies:
Australian Dollar has lost momentum from gains Monday and Tuesday as the pair’s retreat from a 0.9080 high accelerated yesterday after rejection at 0.9020, and the pair dropped more than 100 pips lower, to find support at 0.8885, close to Monday’s low of 0.8860.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the mentioned 0.8885, and below here, 0.8860 (Aug 16 low) and then 0.8740 (Jul 21 low).
On the upside, resistance levels lie at 0.8925/35, and above here, 0.9015 (Aug 19 high) and then 0.9050.
Commodities:
Crude-oil futures finished Thursday at their lowest price since July 7 as the day’s round of macroeconomic reports showed the U.S. economy is poised to grow at a slower pace than earlier this year.
Prices had opened higher but turned lower after a Labor Department report showed a nine-month high for U.S. jobless claims. Oil dipped further after data showed manufacturing activity slowing in the Philadelphia area and a slow rise for the Leading Indicators Index.
