Binary Options Market Outlook – July 12 – 16
Spotlight:
Google earnings forecast:
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Conference Call – 4:30PM EDT
Jul 15, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Release – 4:00PM EDT
Google is set to release its Q2 earnings report later this week. In the meantime investors have been buying Google stock in anticipation that Google may again have positive earnings and reflecting that the stock may be oversold. Earlier Google passed through its 20 day moving average and resistance is expected ahead of its 50 day moving average.
U.S. Stocks: Earnings Season Begins July 9, 2010
Alcoa starts week that includes reports from Intel, Google, AMD, GE, Citi, Bank of America and Chase. The S&P500 index has been on the rise in anticipation of earnings season as investors are optimistic about the Q2 numbers.
Currencies: U.S. dollar will be tested by economic release data
American Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This all-important consumer related figure was very disappointing last month – sales dropped by 1.2% and core retails sales by 1.1%. This hurt the dollar last month. A recovery now will support it.
American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After a positive surprise last week, with a drop back to 454K. All in all, this tight range isn’t too good. Only a drop under 430K will give hope of a serious improvement in the job market. A rise above 480K will be worrying.
American CPI: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. A rise in consumer prices is the key for a rate hike, but this isn’t due soon. CPI dropped by 0.2% last month and is expected to tick up this time. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by only 0.1% last month, and no big change is due this time.
Gold to hold $1,200 oz
Gold futures are widely expected to hold the $1,200 oz resistance. All this depends largely on earnings season in the U.S., as investors decide whether or not to move into riskier investments or to jump to safe havens.
Oil prices to consolidate with lower prices possible
Oil futures may follow the dollar index and U.S. earnings reports. Whether U.S. stocks continue higher as expected will affect the U.S. dollar as investors seek riskier assets.
Binary Options Gameplan – 08-07-10
This is a great opportunity to take advantage of a significant technical pattern on the daily chart of the S&P500 index. The index is recovering from the oversold area (below 20) of the slow stochastic analysis, technically signifying the entry into a swing trade. A swing trade is a trade into a trend that may last anywhere from 3 to 5 or more days. Recognizing this trend can provide great opportunities for buying Binary Call Options. These opportunities may occur throughout the next few days as long as the trend persists.
Binary Options Gameplan – 07-07-10
The most interesting instrument in the spotlight is definitely the EUR/USD, which is dragging all other instruments with it, like Gold and U.S. stocks.
Looking at a technical analysis of the EUR/USD, a very impressive Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern followed by a Bull Flag consolidation is highlighted in the daily chart below. This will lead to higher prices in the short term. But before the prices move higher, the Slow Stochastic analysis (below the chart) which is currently OverBought (above 80) must move back below 80 out of Overbought territory.
Break out of the Head and Shoulders upwards can be a trigger for buying a Binary Call Options. Failure of this currency to rise with the Stochastic overbought level can be the trigger for a trend reversal downwards and buying Binary Put Options.
Click on the Chart to enlarge:
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Binary Options Daily Review July 5, 2010
U.S. stocks down 4.5% on week
Blue chips fell for seventh day and U.S. stocks were lower Friday as the U.S. jobless rate fell, but nonfarm payrolls declined for the first time this year and U.S. factory orders had their biggest drop in 14 months.
Apple expected to take a hit
Apple issued a statement Friday explaining some of the widely reported signal-reception issues with the iPhone 4, blaming the problem on the way the device indicates the strength of wireless coverage.
Australian stocks end the week on an up note
The Australian government announced sweeping changes to its planned new mining tax Friday, making major concessions to the mining industry and clearing the way for an early election, hot on the heels of the sudden installation of a new prime minister. American depositary shares of BHP Billiton jumped 1.5%, while Rio Tinto advanced 1.5% and Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold climbed 2.2%.
Gold end bearish week
Gold rose on Friday, but posted worst week in six with 4% fall.
Oil week was the worst since May
Last week’s 8.5% decline by the front-month contract was the worst since early May. However, many analysts said technical charts show Nymex crude is likely to consolidate with a downward bias to at least a three-week low of $71.62 a barrel.
Indices are now available on StartOptions.com
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Weekly Outlook June 14 – 18
The upcoming week consists of inflation figures from all over the world, a major German survey, rate decisions from Japan and Switzerland among other events. Did the dollar take a pause, or will its new weakness continue?
We see a growing gap between the commodity currencies and the rest of the world. Australia enjoys a great job market, the rate has been lifted in New Zealand, and Canada is doing well on all parameters. This week will be mostly about the US. Let’s start:
1. Japanese rate decision: On Tuesday morning. The BOJ isn’t expected to change the rock-bottom Overnight Call Rate of 0.1%, but the rate statement, and especially the press conference afterwards, will probably trigger interesting statements about the state of the economy. Officials in the new Japanese government warned that Japan could face a “Greek-style” debt crisis. Are they trying to aggressively weaken the Yen?
2. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. The new British Prime Minister, David Cameron, said that inflation must be tackled. The current level of 3.7% is above the government’s target of 1-3%, and this isn’t expected to changed. CPI is expected to tick down to 3.5%. Mervyn King, the BOE’s governor, dismissed inflation until now. Raising the rates while the economy is struggling isn’t tempting. King and other senior members will speak in front of the Treasury Committee about inflation.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This survey of 350 analysts and investors is highly regarded and has a strong impact on the Euro. The forecast is for a slight recovery, from 45.8 to 48.7, after the initial wave of the contagious European debt problems. Note that there’s also an all-European figure, but the German one tends to have more impact.
4. American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of money into our out of the US, being a sign of confidence. The turmoil in Europe, as last month saw a huge leap - 140 billion instead of 50 that was predicted. The safe haven status that the US has will probably be reflected in this figure once again.
5. British employment data: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The number of unemployed people, as seen in the Claimant Count Change, dropped significantly in the past three months, exceeding expectations time after time. While this is good for the Pound, the complementary figure, unemployment rate, which is a lagging figure, rose to 8% and isn’t expected to move from there.
6. European inflation data: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Also in Europe, prices are rising, but the inflation rate isn’t a headache for the ECB, not yet. CPI is expected to show an annual rise of 1.6% and Core CPI a rise of only 0.8%. Any surprise will shake the Euro.
7. American housing figures: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Building permits disappointed last month as they weakened to 610K. A rise to 630K is expected now. A rise above 700K will convince the markets that the recovery is strong. Housing starts reached a higher level, 670K, but they’re expected to drop this time to 650K. Together with the PPI, this time is very volatile for the dollar.
8. American PPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Producer prices fell last month by 0.1%, and this fall is expected to accelerate this month to 0.5% – this is mainly the result of the drop in oil prices. Core PPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, is also expected to be tame – 0.1%. No inflation pressures from here.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 7:15 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes a decision on the Libor Rate only once a quarter. No change is expected this time, so the focus will be on the accompanying release of the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. Will the central bank express concerns about the currency? After the fall of the Japanese government, the Swissy got some renewed attention as a safe haven currency. The low levels of EUR/CHF could trigger an intervention, and this might happen together with the rate decision, as seen in the past.
10. American CPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The main inflation figure isn’t expected to be different than producer prices. CPI is expected to drop by 0.2% and Core CPI will probably rise by 0.1% – Bernanke will probably leave the wording about “interest rates being low for an extended period of time” once again, weakening the dollar.
11. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Last week saw another disappointment, as jobless claims are refusing to go down. This week isn’t expected to be different – the forecast is for a minor drop from 456K to 454K.
12. American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This major gauge has risen steadily in recent months, reaching 21.4 points. This trend will probably stop. The global turmoil will probably take its toll on this indicator.
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Euro makes multi year low: June 7 – 11 Weekly Outlook
After the whopping Non-Farm Payrolls, the new week starts slowly but becomes intense later on. Rate decisions from New Zealand, Europe and Britain, and American retail sales and consumer confidence are the highlights among other events. Let’s see the major market movers this week.
European news has been slower in the past week, with no major credit downgrades or depressing statements. But the crisis is far from over. Traders understand that the austerity measures that flood the continent are a serious damage to growth. These worries can be reflected in the European rate decision. OK, let’s begin:
1. Ben Bernanke talks: First appearance due on Tuesday at midnight GMT, at a conference in Washington; the second event is an official testimony in front of the House Budget Committee on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT, and the last one is later that day, at 20:00 GMT, at a conference in Richmond. Almost every public appearance provides some headlines that move the markets. With questions expected in most events and the growing pressure to raise the rates, it will interesting to see what wording Bernanke will use, and what delicate balance he’ll find behind hope of recovery and worries about Europe.
2. American Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting that decides on the rates, this report about the current economic conditions will shed some light on the state of the US economy, and might provide hints for the rate decision, now that some members are expressing the need to raise the rates.
3. New Zealand Rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. The RBNZ will probably be the third Western central bank to raise the rates. In his previous rate decision, Alan Bollard hinted about raising the rates. Fundamentals in New Zealand have been stabilizing. While they haven’t been superb, this could be enough to follow Australia and Canada and raise the Official Cash Rate from 2.5% to 2.75%. It’s important to notice the rate statement that accompanies the event.
4. Japanese Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. More bad news is expected in Japan after the resignation of the government. GDP for the first quarter will probably be revised to the downside – from 1.2% to 1.1%, pushing the yen lower.
5. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Australia continues to enjoy economic growth and has a good outlook for the future. This will probably be reflected in another gain in jobs. Australian employment change is expected to rise by 16K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4% – lower than most countries.
6. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Mervyn King, head of the BoE continues to face a dilemma – on one hand, inflation continues to pick up, making a rate hike necessary, but the fragile state of economy, that hardly emerged from the recession, means leaving the stimulus measures unchanged. King dismissed inflation so far. Consensus is for another month of unchanged rates – 0.5%. It’s important to watch the MPC Rate Statement. Any concern about inflation could boost the Pound.
7. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet of the ECB faces a similar problem, but in Europe the inflation is softer and the economic issues are harder, making it easier for him to leave the European Minimum Bid Rate unchanged. There are even calls for lowering the 1% interest rate. His words regarding the debt issues and the economy in general at the press conference (45 minutes later) will also shake the markets.
8. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature release of the trade balance in both countries always shakes USD/CAD. The Canadian surplus is expected to rise to 0.7 billion, while the American deficit is expected to remain almost unchanged around 40 billion.
9. American Unemployment Claims ublished on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The first release of jobless claims after the whopping Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to be rather stable – a drop from 453K to 447K, still within the same range that this weekly indicator showed us in recent months.
10. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Sales volume is advancing steadily. The pace of growth is expected to ease this time, from 0.4% last month to 0.2% this time. Also core retail sales, which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve, are predicted to slow to 0.1% from 0.4% last month.
11. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 13:55 GMT. The last event of the week is very important – consumer sentiment is expected to edge back up from 73.6 to 74.9, indicating that the drop we saw recently was only temporary. The university of Michigan publishes this preliminary report close to the market’s close, in a very volatile timing.
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Not Too Late to Trade Against the Market: May 31- June 4 Weekly Outlook
The upcoming week is very busy: we have rate decisions from Canada and Australia, GDP from various countries and the almighty Non-Farm Payrolls to end the week with a blast. Here’s the outlook for the major events that will impact forex trading.
The markets calmed down, at least temporarily, after China denied dumping the Euro. But the debt crisis in the old continent is far from over – with a 2 trillion euro debt of Spain (recently downgraded by Fitch), Portugal and Greece to other countries, defusing the situation won’t be very easy. OK, let’s start the review:
1. Canadian GDP: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP disappointed in February, as it didn’t keep the momentum of February and of Q4 and rose by only 0.3%, half of the previous month’s growth rate. This release for March closes the first quarter of 2010 and will receive special attention. A slightly better growth rate is predicted.
2. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. The central bank (RBA) made it clear that after the surprising firth and sixth rate hikes since the crisis, it would take a break. The hikes proved to be effective, as the real estate market calmed down. The Cash Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%, and the RBA Rate Statement will probably indicate another pause in the next decision.
3. Swiss GDP: Published on Tuesday at 5:45 GMT. Switzerland exited the recession in Q3 of 2009, and its growth accelerated to 0.7% in Q4. This positive trend will probably be continued in 2010 with the same growth rate, as all the economic indicators were positive during this quarter. The SNB even showed satisfaction and “allowed” the currency to appreciate.
4. European employment figures: Published on Tuesday at 7:55 and 9:00 GMT. Germany starts with the release of its unemployment change figure. Last month was excellent – a drop of 68,000 unemployed people, and it followed another great month beforehand. Another positive month of drops (17K is expected) will show that Germany continues to be the locomotive of the EU, carrying everyone else on its back. The second figure is the all-European unemployment rate. It’s been around 10% in the past 6 months, casting a big shadow on the Euro-zone. Note that Spain’s unemployment rate passed the 20% mark, so another rise in the all-European unemployment rate is expected now.
5. Canadian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. In the previous rate decision, Mark Carney’s BOC made it clear that a rate hike is coming soon. The big debate is if it will be seen now, or in the next decision on July 20th. Given the recent slump, there’s a higher chance that the Canadian Overnight Rate will stay at 0.25% for one more month, although a rise to 0.5% isn’t ruled out, as USD/CAD is far from parity.
6. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia never dipped into recession during the financial crisis. In Q4 of 2009, Australia enjoyed a growth rate of 0.9%, the highest since 2007. The rate hikes will probably translate into a slowdown in the figure for the first quarter of 2010 – only 0.6% growth.
7. US Pending Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Other housing figures from the US were excellent. For example, existing home sales jumped by 7.6%. So also with pending home sales, the positive trend will probably continue. The rise of 5.3% seen last month will probably be followed by a similar rise of 4.8%, boosting the dollar.
8. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. The figure from ADP isn’t too good in predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls, but always shakes the markets. This somewhat lagging indicator showed a gain in jobs in the past two months. The gain of 32K jobs in the private sector will probably be followed by a bigger rise this time – 56,000.
9. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly barometer is usually a better indicator. During most of this month’s weeks, it stood around 440K, signalling a positive NFP. Unemployment claims stood on 460K last week. A drop below 430K will raise expectations, while a rise above 480K will be very disappointing.
10. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. After last week saw a leap in the manufacturing sector (to 63.3 points), also the services sector should experience fresh highs after stalling at 55.4 – the highest score for this purchasing managers’ index since 2007.
11. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Canada’s job gain was outstanding last month – 108.7K – over 4 times the early expectations. In a previous whopping result, the loonie leaped. This totally erased the disappointment from the previous month. Also the unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 8.1%. These excellent figures will probably not be repeated, as May saw global problems. A gain of 20,700 jobs is predicted, and the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 8%.
12. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The most important indicator in forex trading was superb last month – it showed that the American job market gained 290K jobs, far better than 198K that was predicted. Also the previous month’s number was upgraded to 230K. On the other hand, the unemployment rate jumped from 9.7% to 9.9%, avoiding double digits, but still causing worries. The government’s decennial census will have a strong impact this time – a gain of 500,000 jobs is expected. On the other hand, the unemployment rate will probably only edge down to 9.8%. This release always creates choppy trading that begins many hours before the release and lasts until the closing bell. I highly recommend reading my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading.
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All Eyes on the Euro: May 24-28 Weekly Outlook
The Greek crisis was not only far from over, but it turned into a global issue. The latest news is the German’s parliament’s approval of the latest bailout package. Fresh news from Europe will continue shaking the markets, as well as the indicators.
GDP releases from the US and Britain, housing figures from the US are among the major market movers expected this week. Will the markets stabilize? Or will the crazy trading continue? Here’s the weekly outlook.
1. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector is an important element in the economy. Existing home sales are the vast majority of sales, so this figure always has a strong impact on forex trading. Last month saw 5.35 million sales, significantly better than expected. Another improvement is predicted this time – 5.61 million. Note that this release comes on an empty calendar.
2. British GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the initial release, Britain’s economy grew by only 0.2% in Q1. This figure was a blow to the Pound. In this revised version (not final yet), an improvement to 0.3% is expected. This will rock the Pound.
3. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board showed a great result last month – 57.9, the highest in 18 months. Another improvement is predicted in this major indicator – a survey of 5,000 people.
4. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve flies to Japan amidst the big crisis in Europe. In a speech about central banks, Bernanke will be asked questions by the audience and might rock the markets.
5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure was confusing last month: orders saw a drop of 0.6%, while the core figure was totally different – a rise of 3.5%. These numbers will shake the markets again. A rise of 1.4% is predicted in orders, and 0.5% in core orders.
6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release of existing home sales, this figure will probably continue the positive trend from last month, when new home sales leaped from 324K to 411K, rocking the markets. A rise to 420K is expected now.
7. American GDP: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This is the second release of GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Also here, more good news is expected – the annual growth rate is expected to be revised from 3.2% to 3.5%, getting closer to the outstanding growth rate in Q4.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This important weekly release disappointed last time with a jump to 471K. Jobless claims are expected to return to 446K this time. A similar leap in April was followed by a return to the 440Ks. Note that the this number failed to drop below 430K – which seems a very strong barrier. This must be broken for the unemployment rate to drop as well.
9. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s biggest problem is the drop in prices – deflation. This indicator from the capital is the earliest and most important of all inflation numbers. After showing an annual drop of 2% in prices for quite some time, this figure is expected to show a smaller drop – 1.5%, the lowest in 11 months. This could boost the yen, that already enjoys risk aversive trading.
10. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. The former “safe currency” enjoys a strong economy. This major composite index edged up in the past months, and is now predicted to rise from 1.99 to 2.04, showing the stability and strength of the economy. Will it help the currency?
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 21, 2010
U.S. stocks drop
U.S. stocks tumbled into their first correction of the long bull market Thursday, as investors unloaded stakes in companies with heavy international exposure on worries that Europe’s debt crisis would stall the global recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 376.36 points, or 3.6%. The S&P 500 Index closed down 43.46 points, or 3.9%.
Google, Intel, Apple in the news
Google Inc. gave up more than $19 a share, or 4%, to fall to $475.01. The company used its developers conference as a platform to unveil its new Google TV initiative with partners such as Intel Corp. Google product manager Rishi Chandra said, “It turns out on the Internet people use Flash,” and added that “part of being open means you’re inclusive,” a jab at Apple’s blocking applications which use Flash on its new iPad tablet and the iPhone.
Oil follows stocks down
Crude-oil futures ended lower on Thursday, mirroring steep losses for U.S. stocks and other commodities as investors wrung their hands about energy demand and feared Europe could derail the global economic recovery.
Gold ends lower
Gold futures declined Thursday as ongoing worries about the global economy sent U.S. stocks and other asset classes reeling, and institutional investors shied away from buying more bullion. Investors such as hedge funds have been unloading their long positions, or bets that prices will go higher.
Euro continues its pullback higher
The euro bounced back against major rivals in early Asian trading Friday, getting a lift against its Japanese counterpart after Japan’s finance minister warned about excessive yen strength. This is day 3 of the expected Euro pullback, as investors wait for the next wave of dollar strength.
