(English) How to trade Google into its earnings report tonight
عفوا، هذه المدخلة موجودة فقط في English.
Obama’s Health Care Reform boosting the USD, Euro Falls on Greek Fiscal Worries – Market Weekly Review – March 22-26
عفوا، هذه المدخلة موجودة فقط في English.
Greek Economy Spells Trouble For Eurozone – Market Weekly Outlook – February 15-19
عفوا، هذه المدخلة موجودة فقط في English.
Oil Rises Above $79 on Wall Street Gains
Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday as gains in the U.S. stock market boosted prices, outweighing earlier pressure from mild weather and the stronger greenback.
U.S. light, sweet crude [CLC1 78.93 0.93 (+1.19%)] rose $1.02 to settle at $79.02 a barrel.
The New York Mercantile Exchange combined prices for Monday and Tuesday into a single trading session because of the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
London Brent crude [LCOC1 77.69 0.59 (+0.77%)] was also higher.
“I do think the S&P 500 is the market’s excuse for price recovery. Whether that establishes that the S&P trumps the stronger dollar and the direct fundamentals remains to be seen,” said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.
Wall Street Tuesday boosted crude prices as investors bet that a Massachusetts Senate race could derail President Obama’s healthcare reform plan.
Opinion polls showed that Massachusetts voters may replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy with a Republican, taking away the Democrats’ 60-vote supermajority in the U.S. Senate.
The S&P Healthcare Index climbed 2.1 percent on Tuesday, with Humana [HUM 51.40 2.89 (+5.96%)] and pharmaceutical company shares leading gains.
Fundamentals Still Weigh
However, high oil inventories and weaker demand due to mild winter weather were still a factor for oil prices, analysts said.
U.S. heating fuel demand is expected to be well below normal this week, according to the National Weather Service.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said Tuesday that oil inventories are high enough to absorb any increase in winter fuel demand.
The group also cut its forecast for demand for its crude by 20,000 barrels per day to 28.59 million bpd in its monthly report, while leaving its forecast for world oil demand growth unchanged at 820,000 bpd.
Futures and Pre-Market
A stronger dollar may also add some pressure to oil prices, with the euro falling to a four-week low against the dollar.
A rise in the value of the dollar often discourages investor interest in dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.
Japan Airlines’ bankruptcy filing Tuesday may also have some impact on oil prices, some analysts said. The company said it would cut more than 15,000 jobs and unprofitable routes.
Banks Must Repay Taxpayers $90 Billion for Bailout: Obama
Declaring “We want our money back,” President Barack Obama wants to slap a tax on banks to recoup the money that the American public spent on bailing out large financial institutions on the brink of collapse.
The president said Thursday his goal is not to punish banks, but rather to prevent them from a behavior of excess, including new employee bonuses he called “obscene.” In brief comments at the White House, Obama took a deeply populist tone.
He said: “My commitment is to the taxpayer.” The president said big banks had shown irresponsibility, engaged in reckless risk for short-term profits, and had gotten themselves into a crisis of their own making.
Some firms would have to pay the fee even though many did not accept any taxpayer assistance.
Obama proposed that major financial firms pay the fee—expected to total $90 billion over 10 years—to protect taxpayers from up to $117 billion in losses on a bank bailout that has spurred fury at Wall Street excess.
Obama’s action comes amid mounting public anger over multi-million dollar bank bonuses while ordinary Americans struggle in the face of 10 percent unemployment.
“The fee that is put forward here is in many ways a minimum — a minimum of what is owed back for the rather significant costs that are borne in many aspects by the taxpayers,” an administration official told reporters.
The levy will recoup losses from a $700 billion taxpayer rescue of U.S. banks called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, conceived in 2008 by Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, at the height of the global financial panic.
Forged after the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers and multi-billion dollar rescue of insurance giant American International Group
ARP helped stem the crisis by injecting public capital into the biggest U.S. banks and convincing investors no others would be allowed to fail.
The action, together with massive monetary and fiscal policy stimulus from the government and Federal Reserve, was unable to deflect the country’s worst recession since the Great Depression, which has pushed unemployment to a 26-year high.
However, that did not obstruct bumper profits on Wall Street as stock markets rebounded sharply in 2009 from crisis-lows.
This has helped many of the banks repay their TARP injections, freeing them of government rules on compensation and allowing them to now pay out major staff bonuses.
Banks that have already repaid TARP capital will not be spared the fee, and nor will firms that got no TARP money to start with, but nevertheless benefited from the stability it brought to the U.S. economy, the official said.
Full details of the fee proposal will not be laid out until Obama delivers his budget for fiscal 2011 in early February, and will then be subject to shaping by Congress. The plan will include a levy of 15 basis points, or 0.15 percentage point, on the balance sheets of big firms with assets of more than $50 billion.
The Obama administration expects to raise $90 billion over the first 10 years, and thinks this will ultimately cover all losses from TARP, although at the moment these losses are being projected at $117 billion.
“The banks that are in question were significantly responsible for an enormous degree of the reckless risk-taking that was borne throughout the entire economy,” the official said.
AIG will be subject to the fee. But mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are under government conservatorship, will be excluded, as will U.S. automakers who got bailout money.
Public rage at bankers, whom Obama chided in December for their “fat cat bonuses,” has taken on a deeper political dimension as Democrats who control Congress weigh sweeping financial regulatory reforms in the face of stiff industry opposition.
Wall Street chiefs were grilled Wednesday at the opening hearing of a special inquiry into the 2008 financial crisis and the resulting taxpayer bailout to save their industry.
The White House said Wednesday that an apology was the least the country expects to hear from the banks.
The heads of Goldman Sach, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America aced the first public hearing of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.
It will convene throughout the year and is expected to issue a report by Dec. 15.
Stocks Shed Losses as Bank Stocks Gain
Stocks turned slightly positive as investors warmed to bank stocks, a day before the White House will announce its plans to charge the industry fees related to the industry’s bailout and as Congress probes the financial system’s collapse.
Major indexes faced pressure most of the morning after energy prices fell on an inventory surge and concerns persisted over global growth. But the mood turned a bit positive as Wells Fargo , Bank of America and others headed higher. BofA earlier was the biggest drag on the Dow.
Energy shares also fell after a report showed a larger than expected surge in inventories.
Oil prices dropped again, falling below $80 a barrel for the first time in 10 days even as the dollar continued to fade.
Chevron was the biggest loser on the Dow 30, which lost an early pop as the market sought to rebound from a losing day Tuesday.
Resource companies also fell, with Southern Copper dropping more than 2.5 percent.
Kraft Foods stoked some investor enthusiasm as it raised its outlook for the second time in two months. Investors even scooped up shares of Alcoa , which led the market lower yesterday after issuing disappointing earnings.
The market fell Tuesday on concerns over earnings and whether monetary tightening in China would stall the global economic recovery.
The China worries seemed to abate somewhat but remained a lingering concern.
“We don’t expect the effects of the current tinkering to be overly disruptive or derail the recovery trend,” Tinconderoga Securities analyst John Stoltzfus wrote in a morning research note that acknowledged a “steep selloff” remains possible. “Likely a look in the rearview mirror sometime down the road will tell us that China’s actions … were sensible and ultimately prudent.”
Technology continued to be a sore spot for the market, though, with chipmakers particularly weak and the Nasdaq lagging its counterparts. shares dropped for the second consecutive day as investors begin to take profits from an aggressive two-month rally in the group.
Google shares fell on news that it may pull out of China because of cyber attacks. Chinese search engine Baidu surged.
AstraZeneca was among the market’s big movers, rising after Credit Suisse upgraded the pharma leader to “neutral” from “underperform.”
Another snapshot of the economy comes at 2 pm New York time, when the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, the region by region assessment of economic conditions.
At the same time, the Treasury is out with the December budget statement, expected to show a deficit of $91 billion for the month, compared with a shortfall of $51.8 billion in December of 2008.
Sony gained as it postpones the launch of videogame Gran Turismo 5, citing production issues for the latest in that hot-selling videogame line.
U.S. December Job Cuts Drop to 84,000, Fewest Since March 2008
Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 84,000 jobs in December, according to a private report based on payroll data.
The drop, the smallest since March 2008, was larger than forecast and compares with a revised 145,000 decline the prior month, data from ADP Employer Services showed today. ADP figures overstated the Labor Department’s estimate of private payroll losses by 85,000 per month on average in the six months to November after today’s revisions.
Figures from the Labor Department show firings have slowed as the world’s largest economy began to recover from the worst recession since the 1930s. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipate the government’s report Jan. 8 will indicate job losses came to an end last month after two years of declines that eliminated 7.2 million workers from payrolls.
“There is an improving trend,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “We may turn the corner in January or February. We’re probably still a month away from positive territory.”
The ADP figures were forecast to show a decline of 75,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg survey.
ADP includes only private employment and doesn’t take into account hiring by government agencies. Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis produces the report jointly with ADP.
Fewer Announcements
Another report today showed employers last month announced the fewest job cuts since the recession began in December 2007 as the economic recovery encouraged companies to retain staff. Planned firings fell 73 percent in December to 45,094 from 166,348 during the same month the prior year, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said.
The Labor Department’s report in two days is also forecast to show the unemployment rate climbed to 10.1 percent in December from 10 percent the prior month, according to the survey median.
The number of jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 is the biggest in the post-World War II era.
Today’s ADP report showed a decrease of 96,000 workers in goods-producing industries including manufacturers and construction companies. Service providers added 12,000 workers.
Employment in construction fell by 52,000, the 35th straight monthly drop, while financial firms decreased jobs by 12,000, ADP said, the 25th consecutive decline for the industry.
Companies employing more than 499 workers shrank their workforce by 34,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, eliminated 25,000 jobs and small companies decreased payrolls by 25,000, ADP said.
The ADP report is based on data from about 360,000 businesses with about 22 million workers on payrolls. ADP began keeping records in January 2001 and started publishing its numbers in 2006.
Emerging-Market Stocks Climb; China’s Index Jumps Most in World
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stocks rose for a third day, with China’s benchmark index posting the biggest rally worldwide, as commodity and computer-chip prices climbed on speculation government stimulus is reviving economic growth.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 0.9 percent to 972.59 at 8:45 a.m. in London, heading for the highest closing level in a week. China’s Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.6 percent. The extra yield investors demand to own emerging-market debt over U.S. Treasuries dropped 4 basis points to 2.86 percentage points, the lowest level since August 2008, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI+ Index.
Chinese shares advanced the most this month after the 21st Century Business Herald said the government may cut taxes for small and medium-sized businesses and technology companies. South Korea’s Hynix Semiconductor Inc. led gains in chipmakers after prices for dynamic-random-access-memory chips jumped 4.2 percent yesterday to the highest level since Nov. 25. OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel climbed in Moscow as nickel and copper prices rose more than 1 percent.
“All this stimulus funding has gone into the economy and pushed the equity market higher,” Manoj Ladwa, an equity strategist at ETX Capital in London, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We’re going to see a continuation in the first quarter of 2010.”
Orders for U.S. durable goods probably rose in November as improving sales prompted companies to boost stockpiles and invest, economists said before a report today. Bookings for goods meant to last several years increased 0.5 percent after declining 0.6 percent in October, according to the median estimate of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week.
Stocks Rise, Bonds Drop on Economic Recovery; Carbon Declines
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied and bonds fell, sending the difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury note yields to a record, on signs the economic rebound is gaining steam. Oil rose after attacks on facilities in Nigeria and Iraq.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1.2 percent to 1,115.44 at 11:20 a.m. in New York. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 1.4 percent. The Treasury yield curve touched 281 basis points on speculation the economic rebound will fuel inflation, while the cost to protect U.S. corporate bonds from default fell to the lowest since May 2008. Carbon-permit prices tumbled as leaders agreed not to set binding emissions targets at the Copenhagen climate summit.
Optimism about the global economic recovery was bolstered as analysts advised buying shares of Alcoa Inc. and Intel Corp. on signs that demand for aluminum and computer chips is improving. The Confederation of British Industry raised its forecast for next year’s U.K. growth to 1.2 percent from 0.9 percent. U.S. consumers probably earned and spent more in November, economists said before reports later this week.
“The economy is improving and shoppers are out there, which signals confidence in that improvement,” said Stefanie Yeager, a fund manager at State College, Pennsylvania-based Vantage Investment Advisors LLC, which oversees $450 million. “People are really seeing that things are turning around. Christmas isn’t turning out to be the black mark that people thought it might be earlier in the year.”
Chipmakers Lead Gains
All 24 industries in the S&P 500 advanced, with Intel leading computer-chip stocks up 2.6 percent for the top gain. Retailers climbed 1.5 percent as a group after the National Retail Federation said last-minute shopping in the days leading up to Christmas may make up for lost weekend sales on the U.S. East Coast after record snowfalls shut stores early and kept shoppers at home.
Health insurers, led by Cigna Corp. and Aetna Inc., rose two days after the Senate announced a compromise health-care bill that dropped proposals for a government-run plan to compete with the private sector and delayed taxes on the insurance industry. Cigna and Aetna climbed at least 6 percent, while the 13-member Standard & Poor’s insurance index was up 4.4 percent.
“The bill seems fairly benign for the industry,” said Les Funtleyder, a Miller Tabak & Co. analyst in New York, in a note to clients. “A mid-2010 start date seems like it will give the companies enough time to deal with the new rules.”
Default Swaps Drop
Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index, used to speculate on the creditworthiness of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada or to protect against losses on their debt, declined 1.5 basis points to 87 basis points, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. The index fell to its lowest since May 2, 2008, according to CMA DataVision.
The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks advanced 1 percent. Safran SA climbed 3.8 percent in Paris after winning a $5 billion contract to supply engines for China’s first narrowbody aircraft. Natixis SA added 3.6 percent after the French bank said it will be profitable in the fourth quarter.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3 percent, as Hong Kong- listed property developers and insurers declined on concern China will do more to curb real-estate speculation. Soho China Ltd., the biggest developer in Beijing’s central business district, dropped 4.5 percent and Poly (Hong Kong) Investment Ltd. lost 6.1 percent.
Carbon Permits Tumble
European Union carbon permits fell the most since February on the European Climate Exchange. Carbon-dioxide allowances for delivery in December 2010 fell as much as 8.7 percent to 12.40 euros a metric ton.
The U.S., China, India and other nations attending the two- week Copenhagen summit that ended at the weekend agreed to voluntary, rather than binding, targets to reduce emissions. The accord isn’t enough to boost demand for permits, said Trevor Sikorski, an emissions analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
The dollar traded near a three-month high against major counterparts. The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against currencies including the euro, yen, pound and franc, has increased 3.8 percent this month to 77.687, within 1 percent of its three-month high of 78.141 reached on Dec. 18.
The dollar traded at $1.4318 per euro, compared with $1.4338 on Dec. 18, when it appreciated to $1.4262, the strongest level since Sept. 4. The yen depreciated 0.4 percent to 130.20 per euro, from 129.75.
Oil Rallies
Crude oil rallied as much as 1.3 percent to $74.32 a barrel in New York. Nigeria’s main militant group claimed its first assault on oil infrastructure in the country in five months, while Iraq shut its northern export pipeline to Turkey after an explosion damaged the link. OPEC, meeting in Angola tomorrow, said it expects to hold production targets.
Nickel rallied 4.8 percent to $17,925 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange as Russia’s government decided to reimpose a 5 percent tax on nickel exports that was suspended in January. Russia is home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest producer of the stainless-steel ingredient.
Copper for three- month delivery added 1.7 percent to $6,960 a ton, the first gain in three days.
The yield on the German 10-year bund, Europe’s benchmark government security, climbed five basis points to 3.18 percent. Greece’s bonds fell for a third day, pushing the 10-year yield 16 basis points higher to 5.94 percent to its highest level since March.
