Binary Options Daily Review – May 31, 2010
U.S. Dollar up in Asian Trading
The dollar rose against the yen in Asia Monday as non-Japanese hedge funds and banks adjusted their portfolios ahead of key central bank policy-making meetings. The dollar is expected to gain further against the yen if the outcomes of the policy meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada, scheduled for Tuesday, turn out to be hawkish, dealers said.
U.S. Stocks on Holiday; Declines Expected to Continues
The U.S. stock market has its work cut out for it after its worst month in more than a year, with the volatility and global concerns that have roiled Wall Street for weeks expected to continue when investors return from the long holiday weekend. On Friday, a downgrade of Spain’s debt rating kept Europe’s debt troubles fresh in mind as Wall Street closed the books on the market’s worst monthly drop since February 2009.
Oil up in Asia
Crude oil futures rose in muted Asian trading ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, after an initial stutter that followed the downgrade of Spain’s sovereign debt by credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings.
Not Too Late to Trade Against the Market: May 31- June 4 Weekly Outlook
The upcoming week is very busy: we have rate decisions from Canada and Australia, GDP from various countries and the almighty Non-Farm Payrolls to end the week with a blast. Here’s the outlook for the major events that will impact forex trading.
The markets calmed down, at least temporarily, after China denied dumping the Euro. But the debt crisis in the old continent is far from over – with a 2 trillion euro debt of Spain (recently downgraded by Fitch), Portugal and Greece to other countries, defusing the situation won’t be very easy. OK, let’s start the review:
1. Canadian GDP: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP disappointed in February, as it didn’t keep the momentum of February and of Q4 and rose by only 0.3%, half of the previous month’s growth rate. This release for March closes the first quarter of 2010 and will receive special attention. A slightly better growth rate is predicted.
2. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. The central bank (RBA) made it clear that after the surprising firth and sixth rate hikes since the crisis, it would take a break. The hikes proved to be effective, as the real estate market calmed down. The Cash Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%, and the RBA Rate Statement will probably indicate another pause in the next decision.
3. Swiss GDP: Published on Tuesday at 5:45 GMT. Switzerland exited the recession in Q3 of 2009, and its growth accelerated to 0.7% in Q4. This positive trend will probably be continued in 2010 with the same growth rate, as all the economic indicators were positive during this quarter. The SNB even showed satisfaction and “allowed” the currency to appreciate.
4. European employment figures: Published on Tuesday at 7:55 and 9:00 GMT. Germany starts with the release of its unemployment change figure. Last month was excellent – a drop of 68,000 unemployed people, and it followed another great month beforehand. Another positive month of drops (17K is expected) will show that Germany continues to be the locomotive of the EU, carrying everyone else on its back. The second figure is the all-European unemployment rate. It’s been around 10% in the past 6 months, casting a big shadow on the Euro-zone. Note that Spain’s unemployment rate passed the 20% mark, so another rise in the all-European unemployment rate is expected now.
5. Canadian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. In the previous rate decision, Mark Carney’s BOC made it clear that a rate hike is coming soon. The big debate is if it will be seen now, or in the next decision on July 20th. Given the recent slump, there’s a higher chance that the Canadian Overnight Rate will stay at 0.25% for one more month, although a rise to 0.5% isn’t ruled out, as USD/CAD is far from parity.
6. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia never dipped into recession during the financial crisis. In Q4 of 2009, Australia enjoyed a growth rate of 0.9%, the highest since 2007. The rate hikes will probably translate into a slowdown in the figure for the first quarter of 2010 – only 0.6% growth.
7. US Pending Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Other housing figures from the US were excellent. For example, existing home sales jumped by 7.6%. So also with pending home sales, the positive trend will probably continue. The rise of 5.3% seen last month will probably be followed by a similar rise of 4.8%, boosting the dollar.
8. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. The figure from ADP isn’t too good in predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls, but always shakes the markets. This somewhat lagging indicator showed a gain in jobs in the past two months. The gain of 32K jobs in the private sector will probably be followed by a bigger rise this time – 56,000.
9. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly barometer is usually a better indicator. During most of this month’s weeks, it stood around 440K, signalling a positive NFP. Unemployment claims stood on 460K last week. A drop below 430K will raise expectations, while a rise above 480K will be very disappointing.
10. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. After last week saw a leap in the manufacturing sector (to 63.3 points), also the services sector should experience fresh highs after stalling at 55.4 – the highest score for this purchasing managers’ index since 2007.
11. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Canada’s job gain was outstanding last month – 108.7K – over 4 times the early expectations. In a previous whopping result, the loonie leaped. This totally erased the disappointment from the previous month. Also the unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 8.1%. These excellent figures will probably not be repeated, as May saw global problems. A gain of 20,700 jobs is predicted, and the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 8%.
12. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The most important indicator in forex trading was superb last month – it showed that the American job market gained 290K jobs, far better than 198K that was predicted. Also the previous month’s number was upgraded to 230K. On the other hand, the unemployment rate jumped from 9.7% to 9.9%, avoiding double digits, but still causing worries. The government’s decennial census will have a strong impact this time – a gain of 500,000 jobs is expected. On the other hand, the unemployment rate will probably only edge down to 9.8%. This release always creates choppy trading that begins many hours before the release and lasts until the closing bell. I highly recommend reading my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading.
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 27, 2010
USD up versus Euro, faces key resistance at 1.21150
The dollar advanced on Wednesday against the euro, which fell below $1.22 late in the session, in part as a jump in U.S. durable goods orders and new home sales added fundamental support for the greenback, which is on track for its best month since October 2008.
U.S. Stocks: Dow loses triple-digit gain after late-session swing
Stocks struggle late in day Wednesday, giving back morning gains, as the Euro pushed below a key threshold.
Oil ignores inventories data and rallies 4%
Oil futures rise above $71 a barrel after data show a decline in inventories at a key delivery point.
EPA may ban BP from government contracts
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency may consider a ban on government contracts with BP Plc in retaliation for the continuing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Gold higher for 3rd straight day
Gold futures finished higher for a third straight session on Wednesday on worries about the global economy and as the rebound in global stock markets prompted short-term speculative interest in metals and other commodities.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 26, 2010
Europe shares rebound
After a 2.5% downturn on Tuesday, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 1.3%. European shares bounced on Wednesday, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 2.2%, with investors picking up shares in banks and miners bruised by heavy selling in the previous session.
U.S. Stocks rebound from a nearly 300 point drop in the DOW
U.S. stocks ended a volatile session mostly higher on Tuesday, with a rebound in materials, financial and consumer shares.
U.S. Dollar rises slightly
The U.S. dollar rose slightly against major rivals in early European trading.
Gold rises
Gold prices made small gains on Tuesday as tensions on the Korean peninsula and worries about Europe sparked safe-haven bullion buying.
Oil ends lower but trims some of its losses
Oil futures trim some of their losses as commercial buyers snap up crude at bargain-basement prices and stocks come off their lows.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 25, 2010
Forex update: Euro in free-fall
The euro kept falling against the dollar and yen as concerns grow that the euro-zone’s sovereign debt turmoil has started to undermine the health of the region’s financial system.
British shares fall through key level
The FTSE 100 falls below the 5,000 level for the first time since late last year on Tuesday, pulled down by heavy losses for banks and miners.
European stocks suffer steep losses
European shares fell sharply on Tuesday, with banks and miners taking the brunt of the selling as investors fretted over tensions in Korea as well as problems with debt burdens and bank balance sheets closer to home.
U.S. pointing to a very weak start after steep losses on Monday
U.S. stock futures pointed to a turbulent start Tuesday amid tensions in North Korea and euro-zone debt and bank concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 199 to 9,844.00. A late sell-off sent stocks to a steep loss Monday that erased all the previous session’s gains, underscoring that investors’ fears about Europe’s credit crisis and tighter rules on Wall Street are still running strong.
‘Bull case’ for Apple
Apple’s shares get a lift after a Morgan Stanley analyst says the tech blue-chip could be worth $400 a share.
Oil edges up despite strong dollar
Crude inched up Monday, hanging on to higher prices even as futures battled a stronger dollar and a down day for U.S. stocks.
No surprise, Gold higher
Gold and other metals futures bounced back on Monday, with investors more eager to buy bullion as prices had come off from their record mid-May highs.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 24, 2010
Euro, Dollar Up vs Yen
The dollar and the euro ticked up against the yen in Asia Monday as short-term players in the region reacted to gains in Chinese share markets by selling the safe-haven yen in favor of the two riskier currencies.
Oil looking for a stronger start early this week
Crude futures rose in Asia Monday. Also on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in July traded at $70.71 a barrel.
Gold still weaker
Gold futures ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, as investors dumped the metal, in order to raise cash for stock bargain hunting. “We maintain a positive view on gold given longer-term investor interest remains strong. However, in the near term profit taking and margin requirements given elevated speculative interest could result in a deeper correction,” said market analysts.
U.S. Stocks will look to economic data
U.S. economic data will be flowing thick and fast in the week ahead, with housing reports a particular focus.
European Stocks start the week strongly
European shares climbed on Monday morning, with banks taking back some ground lost last week amid jitters about sovereign finances.
All Eyes on the Euro: May 24-28 Weekly Outlook
The Greek crisis was not only far from over, but it turned into a global issue. The latest news is the German’s parliament’s approval of the latest bailout package. Fresh news from Europe will continue shaking the markets, as well as the indicators.
GDP releases from the US and Britain, housing figures from the US are among the major market movers expected this week. Will the markets stabilize? Or will the crazy trading continue? Here’s the weekly outlook.
1. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector is an important element in the economy. Existing home sales are the vast majority of sales, so this figure always has a strong impact on forex trading. Last month saw 5.35 million sales, significantly better than expected. Another improvement is predicted this time – 5.61 million. Note that this release comes on an empty calendar.
2. British GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the initial release, Britain’s economy grew by only 0.2% in Q1. This figure was a blow to the Pound. In this revised version (not final yet), an improvement to 0.3% is expected. This will rock the Pound.
3. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board showed a great result last month – 57.9, the highest in 18 months. Another improvement is predicted in this major indicator – a survey of 5,000 people.
4. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve flies to Japan amidst the big crisis in Europe. In a speech about central banks, Bernanke will be asked questions by the audience and might rock the markets.
5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure was confusing last month: orders saw a drop of 0.6%, while the core figure was totally different – a rise of 3.5%. These numbers will shake the markets again. A rise of 1.4% is predicted in orders, and 0.5% in core orders.
6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release of existing home sales, this figure will probably continue the positive trend from last month, when new home sales leaped from 324K to 411K, rocking the markets. A rise to 420K is expected now.
7. American GDP: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This is the second release of GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Also here, more good news is expected – the annual growth rate is expected to be revised from 3.2% to 3.5%, getting closer to the outstanding growth rate in Q4.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This important weekly release disappointed last time with a jump to 471K. Jobless claims are expected to return to 446K this time. A similar leap in April was followed by a return to the 440Ks. Note that the this number failed to drop below 430K – which seems a very strong barrier. This must be broken for the unemployment rate to drop as well.
9. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s biggest problem is the drop in prices – deflation. This indicator from the capital is the earliest and most important of all inflation numbers. After showing an annual drop of 2% in prices for quite some time, this figure is expected to show a smaller drop – 1.5%, the lowest in 11 months. This could boost the yen, that already enjoys risk aversive trading.
10. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. The former “safe currency” enjoys a strong economy. This major composite index edged up in the past months, and is now predicted to rise from 1.99 to 2.04, showing the stability and strength of the economy. Will it help the currency?
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Binary Options Daily Review – May 21, 2010
U.S. stocks drop
U.S. stocks tumbled into their first correction of the long bull market Thursday, as investors unloaded stakes in companies with heavy international exposure on worries that Europe’s debt crisis would stall the global recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 376.36 points, or 3.6%. The S&P 500 Index closed down 43.46 points, or 3.9%.
Google, Intel, Apple in the news
Google Inc. gave up more than $19 a share, or 4%, to fall to $475.01. The company used its developers conference as a platform to unveil its new Google TV initiative with partners such as Intel Corp. Google product manager Rishi Chandra said, “It turns out on the Internet people use Flash,” and added that “part of being open means you’re inclusive,” a jab at Apple’s blocking applications which use Flash on its new iPad tablet and the iPhone.
Oil follows stocks down
Crude-oil futures ended lower on Thursday, mirroring steep losses for U.S. stocks and other commodities as investors wrung their hands about energy demand and feared Europe could derail the global economic recovery.
Gold ends lower
Gold futures declined Thursday as ongoing worries about the global economy sent U.S. stocks and other asset classes reeling, and institutional investors shied away from buying more bullion. Investors such as hedge funds have been unloading their long positions, or bets that prices will go higher.
Euro continues its pullback higher
The euro bounced back against major rivals in early Asian trading Friday, getting a lift against its Japanese counterpart after Japan’s finance minister warned about excessive yen strength. This is day 3 of the expected Euro pullback, as investors wait for the next wave of dollar strength.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 20, 2010
U.S. Stocks post mild loss
U.S. stocks ended moderately lower Wednesday as investors wrestled with worries over the euro zone’s debt woes and the potential impact on U.S. companies.
Oil ready to turn around?
Crude-oil futures tried but failed to post any sizable gains Wednesday, as investors remained cautious about the global economic recovery and, by extension, about the demand for oil.
Gold finally takes a day off – ends 1.8% lower
Gold ended lower on Wednesday and platinum and palladium plummeted as commodities felt the pinch of a retreat in risk appetite amid selling pressure in stocks and energy products.
The Dollar continues to march higher in Asian trading
The dollar edged higher against the yen and took back some ground lost to the Euro in Asia Thursday.
Binary Options Daily Review – May 19, 2010
Euro at a four year low!
The euro touched a new four-year low against the U.S. dollar in early Asian trading Wednesday, after new reports Tuesday that Germany will ban certain types of short-selling heightened market worries about Europe.
Oil headed south…
Not surprisingly, and as we predicted over the last few days, as the U.S. dollar strengthened, crude-oil futures fell below $68 a barrel in electronic trading Wednesday afternoon in Asia, extending their losses after closing at a seven-month low. Crude Oil Binary Options are also available for trading at StartOptions.com
Gold cooling off after a big run
Gold futures ended lower Tuesday as physical demand was seen as slack and investors pared their positions following bullion’s recent rise. “The uptrend is still intact,” said market analysts, adding that gold’s floor is likely to hover around the $1,214-an-ounce mark.
U.S. Stocks drop on tuesday
U.S. stocks landed with a thud on Tuesday, giving up earlier attempts at gains, as the euro’s slide soured sentiment among investors viewing the currency as a proxy for Europe’s sovereign-debt troubles.
U.S. Stocks headed for a weak start
U.S. stock futures drop Wednesday, the first day of the hastily-drawn-up German short-sale ban, which served to reinforce rather than dispel worries over the health of European governments and the lenders that possess their debt.
