Binary Options Trading Review – March 29 – April 2
The upcoming week contains important events in many countries: Japan’s Tankan index, Canadian and British GDP and employment from Europe and the US – the Non-Farm Payrolls, which are the climax. Will the dollar continue to advance for another week? Here are the biggest market movers expecting us this week.
Non-Farm Payrolls are published on the first Friday of the month, as usual, but this time it’s Good Friday, a holiday in most countries. What will happen in the markets? And who will be there to trade? Apart from the regular events, financial leaders from the Group of 8 (G8) will be meeting in Gatineau, Canada and they might release some market moving statements.
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1. British Final GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the first and second releases, Britain got out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, although it was partly due to a downwards revision of Q3’s number. The second release showed a growth rate of 0.3%, and this will probably be confirmed now. Any revision will rock the Pound.
2. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. 5,000 households are surveyed for this important survey on economic conditions. Last month saw a painful drop from 56.5 to 46 points, the lowest level since April 2009. A recovery to 50.3 is expected this time. Choppy trading will be seen during this time.
3. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s unemployment rate is big burden on policymakers, although it’s currently overshadowed by the debt problems in Greece and Portugal. The dip to 9.9% is a small psychological relief after reaching 10%. A rise back to double digits – 10%, as it was beforehand, will hurt the Euro.
4. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. This important Swiss indicator has been on the rise in recent months, reaching 1.87 points last month, and exceeding expectations. It seems that the Swiss National Bank gave up on interventions and lets EUR/CHF fall, despite their strong words. This indicator will give another push to the Swissy. It’s expected to edge up to 1.91 points.
5. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. This important indicator always shakes the markets, but it is far from predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. In recent months, a positive surprise in this indicator meant a disappointment in the NFP, and vice versa. A loss of 20,000 jobs was reported last time. And now, a rise of 41,000 jobs is predicted.
6. Canadian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP surprised last month with a strong rise of 0.6%, boosting the Canadian dollar. The upcoming release is the first for 2010. We’ll probably see the positive trend continue in January as well with a rise of 0.5% in GDP.
7. Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. This is one of the most important Japanese indicators, released only once per quarter. About 1,200 manufacturers are surveyed by the Bank of Japan. The Tankan Manufacturing Index. The last score was -24, still negative, meaning worsening conditions, but the best since the end of 2008. Another improvement to -14 is predicted this time.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. American jobless claims have been improving in recent weeks, dropping from 496K to 442K. This weekly indicator has proved to be a good indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Another drop in claims will raise expectations for the major figure in the next day. They are expected to remain almost unchanged.
9. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector have been optimistic in the past 7 months, with a score above 50. After reaching a peak of 58.4 points, the score fell to 56.5 points last month. A small rise to 57.2 is expected this time.
10. American Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The king of forex is special this time – it’s published on Good Friday – Easter. Banks in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will be closed. No other indicators are released on this day. Liquidity will be extremely low. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics will still publish this important figure. The US lost 36,000 jobs last month, slightly better than the low expectations. A huge gain of 187,000 jobs is expected now. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.7% and is expected to remain unchanged this time as well.
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Obama’s Health Care Reform boosting the USD, Euro Falls on Greek Fiscal Worries – Market Weekly Review – March 22-26
Apparently the dollar only took a break just to show fresh strength. The upcoming week. The upcoming week starts with an easy Monday and then becomes busy with many American events. Note a special British event – the annual release of the budget. Let’s review the major market-movers for the upcoming week.
Also in the upcoming week, there’s a smaller-than-usual time difference between North America and Europe. This gives one extra overlapping hour, making day traders more busy and getting European and American events closer to each other – meaning more volatility.
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1. British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. British inflation is above the governments’ target of 1-3%. This was already seen last month with a rise to 3.5% (annualized). Mervyn King was then forced to write a letter explaining the reasons for the result and the measures that will be taken. He wasn’t too excited, and wants to see a weaker Pound. This time, CPI is expected to rise by 3.1%, getting back in line. Was King right? If so, the Pound will drop.
2. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The vast portion of home sales is of existing homes. This sector has seen a strong rise due to government programs, but then returned to normal. Sales are expected to stay almost unchanged at 5 million. A surprise will move the markets.
3. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. This German survey continued to improve, while other German indicators fell. This is a wide survey of 7000 businesses, making it a closely watched indicator for EUR/USD. A small rise from 95.2 to 95.8 is predicted. This might hurt the Euro, that already began the awaited plunge.
4. British Annual Budget Release: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, knows how to pound the pound again and again. Less than two months before the general elections, the deficit isn’t expected to be reduced. Whatever the outcome, the Pound will rock.
5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Last month, this indicator was quite confusing – durable goods orders rose by 2.6% while the core figure fell by 1%. These figures were revised to the downside. This time, both numbers are expected to rise by less than 1%.
6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Although new home sales are only a small part of home sales, this figure also tends to move currencies. Also here, when the government retreated, home sales plunged. A small rise from 309K to 316K is predicted.
7. New Zealand GDP: Published on Wednesday at 21:45 GMT. New Zealand takes its time with publishing the Gross Domestic Product. A growth rate of 0.8% is expected in Q4 of 2009. This is higher than Q3’s 0.2%. Also Australia saw similar growth rates in Q3 and Q4 – this figure will also move the Aussie.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. A steady drop in jobless has been seen since they touched 496K about a month ago. Another small drop is predicted this time, from 457K to 453K. After the last negative NFP figure, will we see a gain in jobs next time?
9. Ben Bernanke talks: Begins testifying on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The head of the Federal Reserve comes to House Financial Services Committee for the second part of his testimony, that will focus on the exit strategy. This time it’s a questions and answers session. The questions and the reactions are unknown, so this may easily lead to remarks that can move the markets, even if Bernanke doesn’t bring any real news.
10. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s deflation is a big burden on the economy, for many years. Tokyo’s figure is released before the national number and has a strong impact on the Yen. An annual drop of 1.7% is expected to follow last month’s 1.8%.
11. American Final GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The second release of American GDP for Q4 of 2009 was better than the first release – 5.9% (annualized). This erased the doubts that were about growth, that isn’t accompanied with a growth in jobs. The final release is expected to confirm this strong growth rate.
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StartOptions Team
Disclaimer: Binary options trading might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and willing to accept them in order to trade in the financial markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
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Binary Options Weekly Review – March 15-19
The dollar retreated in the past week on most fronts. Was it a temporary move? The upcoming week provides lots of American events, with Ben Bernanke’s rate decision being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for this week’s market-moving events. In the forex industry, the proposed regulations by the CFTC are again in the news, as their decision is getting close. Also Introducing Brokers joined the fight against these proposals. We’ll probably hear more about it in the upcoming week.
This market review was brought to your by our partner: ForexCrunch.com.
1. American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Monday at 13:00 GMT. Treasury International Capital Long Term Purchases represent the difference between foreign investments in the US and US investments abroad, and actually shows foreign confidence in the US economy. The figure leaped to 126 billion two months ago, but was then cut to half. This time, it’s expected to stand at 38 billion.
2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. This is a highly regarded survey that is a good indicator of the economy. It has fallen in the past months, hurting the Euro each time. A further drop from 45.1 to 43.3 points is expected this time.
3. Housing figures: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. The housing sector had a big “contribution” to the global crisis and is now showing a small recovery. Building Permits dropped to 620K last time, and are now expected to tick down to 619K. Also note a very related figure – Housing Starts, published at the same time. They’re expected to drop from 590K to 570K.
4. American rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke already made his move out of the usual cycle – the “mini rate hike” of the discount rate shocked the markets and signaled that the Federal Reserve will probably be more aggressive than other central banks. Will they finally drop the wording “an extended period of time” for the interest rate? As usual, the FOMC Statement will be in the limelight, as the Federal Funds Rate isn’t expected to move. Note that the statement can be very confusing.
5. Japanese rate decision: Published on Wednesday morning. Also in Japan, no change is expected in the rock bottomOvernight Call Rate, standing at 0.1%. The statement accompanying the decision will be carefully read, and the tone voiced at the press conference has the utmost importance for the Japanese yen.
6. British employment data: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. The number of unemployed Brits rose last month after two good months, as reflected in the Claimant Count Change. Another rise, of 8700 people, is expected this time. The unemployment rate, which relates to the previous month, is expected to follow the same line and rise from 7.8% to 7.9%.
7. American PPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The first inflation figure of the week is about producer prices, and serves a warm up for the consumer prices. After a jump of 1.4% last month, a drop of 0.2% is predicted this time. Note that Core PPI is expected to edge up by 0.1%.
8. American CPI: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. A rise in consumer prices is the key for future rate hikes. Last month the regular small changes: a rise of 0.2% in CPI and a drop of 0.1% in Core CPI. There aren’t any expectations this time – both indicators are expected to rise by 0.1%. This will be a very shaky time in the markets, as jobless claims are released at the same time.
9. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After jumping to almost 500K, jobless claims are slowly dropping, reaching 462K last week. Another drop to 456K is predicted now. A drop below 430K will boost the dollar. The rise in jobless claims was clearly reflected in the recent Non-Farm Payrolls.
10. American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This important survey has been positive in the past 7 months, indicating improving economic conditions. After exceeding expectations and reaching 17.6, it’s predicted to soften to 17.3 points this time.
Best Regards,
StartOptions Team
Disclaimer: Binary options trading might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and willing to accept them in order to trade in the financial markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
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StartOptions.com Binary Options Market Review-March 08-12
After the NFP, the upcoming week is somewhat less busy. Nevertheless, rate decision in Switzerland and New Zealand, job figures from Australia and Canada and two major American releases on Friday among other events, will provide lots of action. Here’s the weekly outlook.
On Monday and Tuesday, there are many events on the calendar, but not too many important ones. The effect of the Non-Farm Payrolls will still strongly felt at the beginning of the week, until fresh important indicators are released. Let’s start:
This Market Weekly Outlook was brought to you by our partner ForexCrunch.com.
1. Swiss Retail Sales: Published on Monday at 8:15 GMT. Switzerland enjoys a strong and stable economy with confident consumers. Last month, sales volume jumped by 4.7%, a very strong pace. This time, a rise of 1.6% is predicted. This will have a strong impact on the Swissy as well as a collateral effect as the beginning of the week doesn’t contain too many figures.
2. British NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. NIESR is usually more accurate than other economists in understanding the economy. The upcoming release will show the growth rate for the three months that ended in February, as Britain hardly got out of recession at the end of 2009. This tends to have a long term impact on the Pound.
3. American Federal Budget Balance: Published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. It’s no secret that the US government owes a lot of money. The size of the deficit fell to more “normal” levels last month – only 40 billion. But this time, it’s predicted to surge back to 200 billion, weighing on the dollar.
4. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 20:00 GMT. New Zealand has the second highest interest rate among the major currencies, 2.5%, but it didn’t follow its neighbor Australia and didn’t raise the rates. Also now, Alan Bollard is expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged but may hint about future hikes in the RBNZ Press Conference. This decision has an impact beyond New Zealand and impacts also the Aussie.
5. Japanese Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. According to the initial release, the land of the rising sun experienced a stronger growth than expected – 1.1% in Q4. This is expected to be revised to the downside – 1.0%, shaking the Japanese Yen against the dollar and all the Yen crosses.
6) Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. In the past four months, Australian employment figures were fantastic, beating expectations each time. The predictions remain cautious: Employment Change is expected to rise by a modest number – 15,300 and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%, after dropping from 5.5% last time.
7. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. This double-feature release in Canada and the US always triggers action in USD/CAD. The American deficit is expected to remain high at around 40 billion, while Canada is expected to turn from a deficit of 0.2 to a surplus of 0.4 billion.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Together with trade balance, the first jobless claims report after the Non-Farm Payrolls will probably show an improvement – a drop from 469K to 452K, pushing the dollar higher.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes rate decisions on the Libor rate only once a quarter. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time last year, the central bank accompanied the rate decision with a massive intervention. They now intervene all the time, not only on rate decisions.
10. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 12:00 GMT. Also Canada experienced an improving job market. Last month, the unemployment rate surprised by falling to 8.3%. This is expected to remain unchanged. The superb employment change figure showed a rise of 43,200 jobs last time. It’s expected to be followed by a gain of 17,500 jobs this time. This will rock USD/CAD and also impact the greenback elsewhere.
11. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Sales were stronger than expected in January, but the freezing month of February probably weighed on this growth in the volume of sales. A drop of 0.1% is predicted in retail sales and a drop of 0.1% in core retail sales.
12. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 15:00 GMT. According to the University of Michigan, consumer confidence has been stable in the past three months, remaining almost unchanged at a score of 73.6. A small rise to 74.3 points is expected this time. The timing of the release, close to the close of the markets, promises lots of action around this release.
Best Regards,
StartOptions Team
Disclaimer: Binary options trading might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and willing to accept them in order to trade in the financial markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
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Greece Debt crisis shaking again European economy – March 1-5 2010
The first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.The first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.
1. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. One of biggest burdens on Europe is unemployment rate, standing at 10%, double digits, for two months. In Spain, the number reaches 20%. A drop in this figure is essential for moving the interest rate, but it will probably take the other direction and rise to 10.1%.
2. Canadian GDP: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s unique monthly GDP has posted three positive months, with the last print being better than expected 0.4%. The upcoming release is expected to show another 0.4% rise and completes the data for Q4 of 2009 and should provide another boost for the Canadian dollar.
3. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 15:00 GMT. This important purchasing managers’ index has been on the rise and jumped up to 58.4 points last month, significantly better than expected. It’s now predicted to ease to 57.9 points.
4. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. After last month’s disappointing decision not to raise the rates, there have been different hints about the upcoming decision, most of them leading to a fourth rate hike, to 4%. This should help the Australian dollar, that was hurt by risk aversion trading.
5. Swiss GDP: Published on Tuesday at 06:45 GMT. Switzerland was relived of 3 quarters of contraction in Q3 of 2009, when the economy grew by 0.3%. This stable recovery is expected to continue and push the Swissy upwards, despite the central bank’s effort to bring it down.
6) Canadian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The BOC is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and again, the focus will be on the rate statement. The BOC was very clear about the timing – June 2010. Some expected a declaration about an earlier move, but this didn’t happen in previous decisions. Will it happen this time?.
7. American Beige Book: Published on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting which decides on rates, this overview of the economy is released to the public. This could provide a hint about the next decision, or the next moves by the Fed, such as the recent surprising mini rate hike.
8. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian economy enjoyed an improving job market throughout the fourth quarter of 2009, and this should be reflected in the GDP as well, showing the strength of the Australian economy. Q3 was disappointing, with a small growth rate of 0.2%. A strong growth rate of 0.9% is now expected.
9. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT. This release always shakes the markets, as it’s sometimes considered to be a strong indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Last month it showed a loss of only 22K jobs, better than expected – but the Non-Farm Payrolls were worse than expected. So this figure should be handled with care. It’s expected to show a small drop of 9K.
10. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. In the non-manufacturing sectors, the situation isn’t as good as in manufacturing. ISM showed a score of only 50.5 points, hardly above the critical 50 point mark that indicates economic expansion. This figure fell short of expectations in the past four months. A small rise to 51 is expected.
11) British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Mervyn King hurts the Pound every week. This time, his chance will come at the decision about the Official Bank Rate which will probably stay at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program (Asset Purchase Facility) isn’t predicted to move from the 200 billion pound already allocated to it, but there might be hints about its renewal.
12. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Just 45 minutes after the British decision, Jean-Claude Trichet’s ECB will announce the European Minimum Bid Rate. Also here, no changes are expected, but the complementary ECB Press Conference will supply lots of action. The Greek crisis will still be in the limelight.
13. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Providing the last hint about the Non-Farm Payrolls, this weekly release is expected to show some improvement after last week’s disappointing figure – a rise to 496K, a number not seen in a long time. It’s expected to drop back to 474K.
14. American Pending Home Sales: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This figure returned to stability last month, rising by 1%, but this time it’s predicted to fall again as the housing sector continues to suffer, as we see in the new and existing home sales numbers. A rise of 1.6% is expected.
15. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. After two more months of negative numbers, the king of forex, the predictions now turned negative. Last month’s releases were confusing, as 20K jobs were lost, but the unemployment rate dropped significantly from 10% to 9.7%. Will it be confusing again? Or will we see finally see good numbers? This event will impact forex trading before and after the event, for quite some time. Current expectations are for another loss of jobs: 35,000. Also the unemployment rate is expected to be bad, edging up to 9.8%.
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